Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
46 signals across 12 markets · $126,207 tracked · resolves Jul 2, 2026
This event tracks whether Anthropic will restore US customer access to Claude Fable 5, also known as Claude Mythos, by the June 15 deadline. The Polymarket market is trading a Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter tracking smart money activity — including a recent profitable wallet backing No.
Markets (12)
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?19 signals · $47,800 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?4 signals · $15,445 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?5 signals · $14,406 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?1 signal · $9,671 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?5 signals · $8,533 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?1 signal · $6,900 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?3 signals · $5,946 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?3 signals · $5,847 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?2 signals · $5,170 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?1 signal · $3,919 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?1 signal · $1,474 tracked
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?1 signal · $1,095 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 4-wallet NO cluster
Four wallets, including a brand-new wallet, bought $7.0k of No in a tight window on a near-expiry AI policy market.
$7,046Score: 10.0 - Three-wallet No cluster
Three wallets are aligned on No with $5.7k in flow, including a repeat new-wallet bettor and a profitable high-win-rate wallet, while the market has already moved toward their thesis.
$5,668Score: 9.7 - Sharp profitable buyer
Surface despite the weak price-impact signal because the buyer has a strong 158-bet track record and $3.86M lifetime profit.
$1,149Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 9.0 - 80% winner buys Yes
Sharp serial cross-market trader with 80% win rate and $3.86M profit bought Yes at 52% on a plausible policy-driven AI access market.
$1,911Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 9.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 71% record bought No on a thin, wide-spread AI policy market while positioning across related markets.
$3,063Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 8.5 - Profitable serial thesis bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $3,000 of No on a relatively quiet AI policy market, adding to a broader same-event thesis.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 8.0 - New wallet event thesis
A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.
$1,460Wallet win rate: 35%Score: 7.5 - New wallet event thesis
A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.
$1,403Wallet win rate: 35%Score: 7.5 - New wallet event thesis
A 2-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing sizable bets across related markets, including a fresh $1.46k BUY Yes position here, suggesting a concentrated event-level thesis despite no resolved track record yet.
$1,443Wallet win rate: 35%Score: 7.5 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought Yes on a thin AI-policy market, with a 67% resolved win rate and $123.8k lifetime profit.
$1,158Wallet win rate: 37%Score: 7.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x876bb0…1703$23,112 · 4 markets · 8 alerts · 35% wins
- 0xa65c87…7997$21,742 · 3 markets · 4 alerts · 58% wins
- 0x2b670a…b814$10,015 · 3 markets · 4 alerts · 73% wins
- 0x701488…d7e9$6,487 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xb4f259…e5fa$6,063 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 75% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$4,656 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 80% wins
- 0x62d899…0f4b$4,572 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 33% wins
- 0xf245f5…e750$3,919 · 1 market · 1 alert · 70% wins
- 0x757828…6426$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
- 0x49e940…8f85$2,476 · 1 market · 1 alert · 97% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Claude Fable 5 is restored for US customers by June 15?
The live Polymarket odds reflect traders’ current expectations that Anthropic will or will not restore access by the deadline. This event hub tracks the Yes/No market and any notable movement in those odds.
What is the Claude Fable 5 restoration prediction market about?
The market asks whether Anthropic restores access to Claude Fable 5, also called Claude Mythos, or a confirmed equivalent model for US customers by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. If access is not restored in time, the market resolves to No.
What is smart money doing on this market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,095 in smart money activity across this event, with one recent signal showing a profitable new wallet backing No. That suggests at least one tracked trader is positioning against a timely restoration.
When does the Claude Fable 5 market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve after the June 15 deadline, with the listed resolution time falling on July 2, 2026 at 03:59 UTC. Resolution depends on whether Anthropic restores qualifying US access before the deadline.