Part of: Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether Ukraine will re-enter Uspenivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by May 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if the ISW map shows Ukraine capturing any part of the specified Uspenivka territory by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,800 in smart money activity on this market, with recent signals on both Yes and No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,083.

Categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

75% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet override: despite only a weak low-activity signal, this profitable 75% lifetime winner is buying No in a niche Ukraine territory market.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 561 resolved trades and is up $18K lifetime.
  • They put $1.8K on No in a relatively thin market with only $3.5K liquidity.
  • Entry at 89¢ suggests they see a high-probability outcome with limited remaining uncertainty.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable geopolitics regular buys Yes

Profitable serial cross-market bettor is effectively buying Yes on a quiet Ukraine territory market, with modest price momentum supporting the move.

  • This bettor has 739 resolved trades, wins 73% of them, and is up $271k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $8.8M in tracked activity across 107 events.
  • Selling No at 87¢ is the same as buying Yes at 13¢, on a quiet market where Yes has been drifting up.

$1,283 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe99b...0443 Yes, $4,456
  2. 0x165e...f5aa No, $2,667 (75% win rate)
  3. 0xb26c...0eb0 No, $1,923 (60% win rate)
  4. 0x7590...d6e0 No, $845 (98% win rate)
  5. 0x38a8...865a Yes, $532
  6. 0xf9e1...e46f No, $446
  7. 0x21ff...0d71 Yes, $409
  8. 0xc602...7fc1 Yes, $345 (39% win rate)
  9. 0x84d7...298f Yes, $296
  10. 0x215a...254c Yes, $254

Related Theses

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Ukraine retakes Uspenivka by May 31

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Usyk beats Verhoeven

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Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?

2dWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?$3,083 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsPoliticsUkraineUkraine Map
Yes
1¢
No
99¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “No
101¢
97¢
93¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?

9d ago

$1,800 on No at 89¢

89¢99¢10¢

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?

13d ago

$1,283 on Yes at 13¢

13¢1¢12¢

Related Theses