Part of: Who will be arrested before 2027?
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?
This prediction market asks whether John Brennan will be arrested by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if he is taken into custody, surrenders to authorities under an arrest warrant, or is formally booked; otherwise, it resolves No. The market currently has one tracked smart money signal, a concentrated No bet, totaling $1,096 in tracked activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,096.
Categories: Politics, James Comey, Trump
Notable Trades
Serial bettor makes concentrated No bet
A serial cross-market trader made a concentrated No bet representing 71% of daily volume in a thin political market, though the wallet's broad track record shows only modest edge.
- This trader has placed $186,000 across 50 events and 62 markets, with 1,787 resolved bets.
- The $1,096 No position accounts for 71% of the market's 24-hour volume and was placed in a relatively thin market.
- The wallet bought No at 72¢, implying a 72% chance Brennan is not arrested before 2027.
$1,096 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xb1ca...1705 — Yes, $4,748 (55% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $3,244 (49% win rate)
- 0xaab9...a08d — Yes, $3,120 (58% win rate)
- 0xd8d5...8935 — No, $1,517 (73% win rate)
- 0x836f...906e — No, $1,271 (95% win rate)
- 0xb37a...f1b1 — No, $1,162 (54% win rate)
- 0xeca0...e8f8 — No, $1,000 (53% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — No, $805 (43% win rate)
- 0x44aa...d1d5 — Yes, $729
- 0xde28...2115 — Yes, $700
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