Part of: Spain General Election: SALF wins a seat?
Spain General Election: SALF wins a seat?
This Spain election prediction market resolves Yes if Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF) wins at least one seat in the Congress of Deputies in the election scheduled for November 29, 2026; otherwise, it resolves No. Current odds were not included in the supplied market data, and the rules say it resolves No if results are not definitive by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF) wins at least one seat in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,619.
Categories: Spain, World, Politics, Elections, Spain Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adding to No
A profitable serial trader added $1,794 to an existing No position in a very thin market, though the entry is close to current odds and the track record does not show a clear win-rate edge.
- A trader with 3,123 resolved bets and $179,772 in reported profit added another $1,794 to No.
- The trade is more than twice the market’s reported total volume, and the wallet already held $2,720 in No.
- The 78¢ entry is close to current odds, so the trade shows conviction more than an obvious price advantage.
$1,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable serial trader adding to No
A profitable serial trader added $1,794 to an existing No position in a very thin market, though the entry is close to current odds and the track record does not show a clear win-rate edge.
- A trader with 3,123 resolved bets and $179,772 in reported profit added another $1,794 to No.
- The trade is more than twice the market’s reported total volume, and the wallet already held $2,720 in No.
- The 78¢ entry is close to current odds, so the trade shows conviction more than an obvious price advantage.
$1,794 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x1ee9...197f — No, $5,055 (64% win rate)
- 0x1f4d...80d9 — Yes, $4,580
- 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $411
- 0x21ff...0d71 — Yes, $225
- 0x3ad1...b4c5 — No, $174 (74% win rate)
- 0x738a...5996 — No, $100
- 0x17b8...d5d1 — No, $68 (72% win rate)
- 0x510f...a43c — Yes, $60
- 0x7bcb...62ec — Yes, $60
- 0xf4f8...5bf1 — No, $49 (47% win rate)
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