Part of: Which company has best AI model end of June?

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

This prediction market asks whether a Google-owned AI model will hold the highest rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when checked on June 30, 2026. It resolves based on the ranked leaderboard at lmarena.ai, using the Leaderboard tab with style control off. PolySpotter is tracking $1,500 in smart money activity and 1 recent smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,500.

Categories: Tech, Big Tech, GPT-5, Grok, OpenAI, AI

Notable Trades

91% winner exits Yes

Sharp-wallet override: a 91% winning bettor with positive lifetime P&L is exiting Google Yes, effectively taking No at 81¢, though this appears to be closing a prior losing Yes position rather than a fresh large short.

  • This bettor has won 10 of 11 resolved trades and is up $2,326 lifetime.
  • They sold Google Yes at 19¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 81¢.
  • This looks like an exit from a prior Yes position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large bet.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $157,773
  2. 0xe1b3...1426 Yes, $16,563 (68% win rate)
  3. 0x9648...6825 No, $16,465 (69% win rate)
  4. 0x56e3...81cc Yes, $13,483 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x0753...c6aa Yes, $12,556
  6. 0x5ffb...5e4c Yes, $9,901
  7. 0xa7d2...f954 Yes, $8,348
  8. 0x0562...9d66 Yes, $7,540 (42% win rate)
  9. 0xf933...4069 Yes, $6,921
  10. 0x7365...64da Yes, $6,870 (51% win rate)

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

40dWhich company has best AI model end of June?$1,500 tracked1 signalTechBig TechGPT-5GrokOpenAIAI
Yes
27¢
No
74¢

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Price History — “No
86¢
77¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

3d ago

$1,500 on No at 81¢

81¢74¢7¢