What is the Starmer out by July 31, 2026 prediction market about?

This market covers whether Keir Starmer will stop being UK Prime Minister at any time before July 31, 2026. A resignation, removal, or official announcement of either before the deadline would resolve the market to “Yes.”

When does this Keir Starmer Polymarket resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after July 31, 2026, unless an official resignation or removal announcement causes it to resolve earlier to “Yes.”

What would make the market resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister for any period before the deadline, or if his resignation or removal is officially announced before the market end date, even if it takes effect later.

What would make the market resolve to No?

The market resolves to “No” if Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister through July 31, 2026 and no resignation or removal has been officially announced before then.

How much smart money is being tracked on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $2,956 in smart money on this market, with 1 smart money signal from tracked political and cross-market bettors.

Part of: Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point before July 31, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if he resigns, is removed, or an announced departure occurs before the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $2,956 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,553.

Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable, experienced wallet is adding a cross-market politics position into strong Yes momentum, though the signal is moderate rather than elite.

This bettor has 250 resolved trades and is up $60,674 lifetime.
They are betting across 2 related markets, with $9.6k tied to the same broader thesis.
Yes has already moved up 8 points today and 11 points this week, supporting the direction of the trade.

$2,956 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable cross-market political bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market thesis on Starmer leaving office, with $66k across 3 related markets and favorable recent price momentum.

This bettor has a long track record: 331 resolved trades, 64% wins, and $181k lifetime profit.
They have put about $66k across 3 related Starmer markets, suggesting a broader political thesis.
The Yes price is already moving, up 11 points this week, and this entry was at 41¢.

$1,162 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Proven cross-market political bettor

Serial cross-market political bettor with a strong 185-bet record and positive P&L is buying No as part of a broader Starmer-related thesis.

This bettor has won 74% of 185 resolved bets and is up about $54k lifetime.
They have placed $16.3k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Entry at 64¢ backs Starmer staying in office through July 2026 despite Yes rising 5.5 points this week.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable cross-market whale

Profitable whale with $1.9M lifetime P&L is building a $44K cross-market thesis and bought $11.2K of Yes in a relatively quiet political market.

This wallet is up $1.9M lifetime across $18.1M invested, despite often taking lower-probability positions.
They have $44K across 6 related markets, suggesting a focused political thesis rather than a one-off bet.
This $11.2K buy was about 77% of the market’s past-day volume, a large entry for a quiet book.

$11,159 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 40%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable wallet is expressing a broader cross-market view on Starmer staying in office, with $39k positioned across four related markets and this trade aligned with recent No-side momentum.

This bettor has placed $39k across 4 related Starmer markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
They have won 13 of 19 resolved bets and are up $5.4k lifetime.
No has strengthened recently, with Yes down 10 points in the past day and a tight 1¢ spread.

$1,775 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable serial politics bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin politics market while holding a broader $12.5k position across related Starmer markets.

This bettor has won 69% of 321 resolved bets and is up $23k lifetime.
They have put $12.5k across 4 related Starmer markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
This $2.5k No buy was 61% of the market’s 24h volume in a thin market with a wide spread.

$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%