Starmer out by...?
268 signals across 12 markets · $1,043,179 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2025
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether Keir Starmer will cease to be UK Prime Minister by several 2026 deadlines, including May 15, June 30, and December 31. PolySpotter is monitoring $54,432 in smart money activity across 19 signals, including sharp wallet clusters buying NO and smaller clusters taking YES exposure.
Markets (12)
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?105 signals · $413,988 tracked
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?49 signals · $195,612 tracked
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?29 signals · $156,471 tracked
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?29 signals · $98,280 tracked
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?24 signals · $76,918 tracked
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?12 signals · $56,523 tracked
- Starmer out by May 19, 2026?8 signals · $18,567 tracked
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?6 signals · $15,087 tracked
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?3 signals · $7,235 tracked
- Starmer out by June 23, 2026?1 signal · $1,554 tracked
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?1 signal · $1,500 tracked
- Starmer out by June 25, 2026?1 signal · $1,445 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 5-wallet Yes surge
High-conviction coordinated Yes buying across five wallets drove a major price move on a politically meaningful market with a 56x volume spike.
$12,792Score: 31.1 - Sharp politics cluster buying Yes
A strong Yes cluster includes a 92% lifetime winner and several high-volume serial politics traders buying into a sharp volume and price surge.
$15,782Score: 27.1 - Six-wallet Starmer Yes push
Six wallets pushed $13.6k toward Yes on a political resignation market, with cross-market positioning and one profitable 75% bettor supporting the signal.
$13,567Score: 20.2 - Profitable cross-market Yes flow
Three wallets are taking the Yes side on Starmer leaving office, including profitable cross-market political traders, amid a sharp 1-day price move higher.
$4,552Score: 20.1 - 14-wallet sharp cluster
A highly profitable 85% win-rate wallet from a known 14-wallet funded cluster is adding a cross-market political thesis by buying No on Starmer leaving, and the price has already moved in their favor.
$2,679Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 18.0 - Sharp cross-market Yes flow
Four wallets bought the Starmer-out Yes side amid a sharp 1-day price surge, including a proven 78% winner and a serial cross-market trader, though there is some opposing No flow.
$12,796Score: 17.6 - Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
A highly profitable 85% win-rate wallet from a 5-wallet linked cluster added a sizable No position in a major UK politics market, making this a credible smart-money signal despite the market being liquid.
$3,105Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 17.3 - Profitable contrarian cluster
Three profitable political bettors, including a serial cross-market trader with strong historical results, are all taking the contrarian No side after Yes rallied sharply.
$5,299Score: 17.1 - Linked cluster buying No
Coordinated pro-Starmer-survival flow from three wallets, including a profitable 76% bettor and a linked-wallet funder cluster, makes the No side worth surfacing.
$7,875Score: 14.9 - 92% political sharp buying Yes
Elite 92% win-rate political trader bought Yes before a sharp move higher amid a major volume spike and broader cross-market positioning.
$1,781Wallet win rate: 57%Score: 14.9
Top wallets in this event
- 0x2117ae…5c26$55,250 · 2 markets · 19 alerts · 41% wins
- 0x000d25…758e$50,082 · 4 markets · 10 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xb8a717…7674$47,386 · 1 market · 5 alerts · 68% wins
- 0x9d84ce…1344$45,859 · 5 markets · 6 alerts · 40% wins
- 0xc851cd…cd2a$44,477 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 51% wins
- 0x8c9233…ebd9$40,204 · 2 markets · 12 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x5f176a…519e$34,052 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 90% wins
- 0x629bc4…995a$32,990 · 4 markets · 6 alerts · 52% wins
- 0xb10047…6461$29,836 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 59% wins
- 0xf769c6…0114$29,758 · 4 markets · 9 alerts · 79% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Keir Starmer is out as Prime Minister?
The live odds are set by traders across the event’s deadline markets, with separate pricing for whether Starmer is out by May 15, June 30, or December 31, 2026. Check the event hub for the latest market-implied probabilities and movement.
What is smart money doing on the Starmer out markets?
PolySpotter has tracked 19 smart money signals totaling $54,432 across the event. Recent alerts include a 14-wallet sharp cluster, a 13-wallet cluster buying NO, and a 3-wallet YES cluster, suggesting notable activity on both sides but especially coordinated interest against an early exit.
What does buying YES or NO mean in this prediction market?
Buying YES means a trader is betting Keir Starmer will cease to be UK Prime Minister by the market’s stated deadline. Buying NO means they are betting he remains Prime Minister through that deadline.
When do the Starmer out markets resolve?
Each child market resolves based on its own deadline, such as May 15, June 30, or December 31, 2026. If an official resignation or removal is announced before a relevant deadline, that market may resolve YES according to its rules.
Why are traders watching this Starmer prediction market?
Political prediction markets can react quickly to polling, party leadership pressure, scandals, and Westminster reporting. PolySpotter highlights whether proven politics traders and sharp wallet clusters are positioning before the broader market moves.