Part of: OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether OpenAI or an official representative will announce a solution to one of five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Current odds are not included in the provided market data; the snapshot shows $10,070 in tracked smart money and one signal, with a serial trader adding to No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,040.

Categories: AI, Math, Tech, OpenAI, Science, CMI, Astra

Notable Trades

Serial trader takes contrarian Yes

A $1,685 contrarian bet against No is nearly twice the market’s 24-hour volume, though the wallet’s large-sample record does not show clear odds-adjusted edge.

  • The trader sold No at 84¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, in a market with only $903 of 24-hour volume.
  • This $1,685 position is about 1.9 times the recent daily volume; the wallet has traded across 77 events, but its 70% win rate does not clearly beat its average winning price.

$1,685 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Serial trader adds to sizable No position

A high-volume serial trader added a $4.6k No position in a relatively quiet market, though their record does not clearly show an edge over the prices they typically win at.

  • A trader with 822 resolved bets and $192k lifetime profit added another $4,623 to No.
  • The buy was over half of the market’s 24-hour volume, and the wallet already held a sizable No position.

$4,623 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% record sold Yes, expressing a No position in a speculative market.

  • This bettor wins 75% of 134 resolved trades and is up $238,038.
  • They sold Yes at 19¢, equivalent to buying No at 81¢, across a trader history spanning 63 events.

$2,662 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable serial trader adds to No

A highly profitable, prolific trader added roughly $10,000 to an existing No position, a bet more than 23 times the cited recent volume.

  • This trader has made about $509,000 across 1,122 resolved bets and added another $10,070 to No.
  • The bet was about 23 times the cited $425 in recent volume, and the wallet already had $15,680 invested in No.
  • No is trading near 70%, close to the trader’s 69¢ entry, so the signal is conviction rather than an obvious price discount.

$10,070 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbf0f...28ce — Yes, $37,415 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xe25b...0f1b — No, $35,680 (56% win rate)
  3. 0xc6dd...4b9f — No, $15,558 (70% win rate)
  4. 0xb100...6461 — No, $14,722 (63% win rate)
  5. 0xa58d...b9b8 — Yes, $10,504 (43% win rate)
  6. 0xc58b...ff58 — No, $7,789 (71% win rate)
  7. 0x17b8...d5d1 — Yes, $6,607 (73% win rate)
  8. 0x7365...64da — Yes, $5,774 (63% win rate)
  9. 0x876b...1703 — Yes, $5,340 (45% win rate)
  10. 0x6575...b198 — Yes, $5,219 (75% win rate)

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Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?$19,040 tracked4 signalsAIMathTechOpenAIScienceCMIAstra
Yes
14¢
No
86¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No”
96¢
86¢
76¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-21 15:23 UTC

$1,685 on Yes at 16¢

16¢→14¢↓2¢

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-09 02:28 UTC

$4,623 on No at 83¢

83¢→86¢↑3¢

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-07 19:07 UTC

$2,662 on No at 81¢

81¢→86¢↑5¢

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

2026-09-30 12:13 UTC

$10,070 on No at 69¢

69¢→86¢↑17¢

Related Theses