Part of: LA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?

Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,799.

Categories: Los Angeles, Politics, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, Elections, US Election, LA Mayor, Rewards 300 4.5 50

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes after a major price surge in a plausible informed political market.

  • This bettor has won 69% of 216 resolved bets and is up $25.9k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $172k deployed across 31 events.
  • The market has strong momentum, with Yes up 73 points in the last day.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable bettor flips thesis

A profitable high-volume political bettor flipped into Yes after a major price dislocation in a thin, wide-spread market.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 928 resolved bets and $44.8K in lifetime profit.
  • They previously held No but have now flipped to buying Yes, suggesting a changed view rather than routine trading.
  • The market is thin, and this $1.3K buy was large relative to recent activity at a 38¢ entry.

$1,299 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 10038755, $16,792
  2. 0x8b36...a393 Outcome 10038755, $1,077 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x85ba...e33a Outcome 10038755, $67
  4. 0x6cdb...8a82 Outcome 10038755, $50
  5. 0xc245...bccb Outcome 10038755, $50
  6. 0xeab7...b389 Outcome 10038755, $50
  7. 0x899c...d868 Outcome 10038755, $50
  8. 0x1cdd...e595 Outcome 10038755, $30
  9. 0x8862...bbf5 Outcome 10038755, $25
  10. 0xf3f7...8c35 Outcome 10038755, $23

Related Theses

Covers 8 related markets

No Iran peace deal

Covers 6 related markets

Senegal scores first against France

Covers 1 related market

Morocco scores under three

Covers 1 related market

Saudi Uruguay stays low scoring

Covers 1 related market

Bolojan stays through June

Covers 1 related market

Spain will eliminate Austria

Covers 1 related market

Argentina wins June 22 match

Covers 1 related market

Washington Nationals will defeat Athletics

Covers 1 related market

Argentina Austria stays low-scoring

Covers 1 related market

Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%?

ResolvedLA Mayoral Election: 1st Round Margin of Victory?$2,799 tracked2 signalsLos AngelesPoliticsLos Angeles Mayoral ElectionElectionsUS ElectionLA MayorRewards 300 4.5 50

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the City and County of Los Angeles. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Notable Trades

Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%?

38d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 87¢

Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%?

39d ago

$1,299 on Yes at 38¢

Related Theses