What is the "The Mandalorian and Grogu" under $92M box office market about?

This market predicts whether the movie's domestic 4-day opening weekend gross will be less than $92 million for May 22 through May 25, 2026.

How will this Polymarket box office market resolve?

Resolution will use the final, non-estimate Daily Box Office Performance figures listed on The Numbers for the film's opening weekend domestic gross.

When does the market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on May 26, 2026, after final opening weekend box office figures are available.

What counts as the opening weekend for this market?

The relevant window is the 4-day Memorial Day weekend from May 22 to May 25, 2026, using domestic box office gross only.

Is there smart money activity on this market?

Yes. PolySpotter currently tracks $8,843 in smart money and 1 signal, including activity from a profitable box-office specialist.

Part of: "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?

This prediction market asks whether "The Mandalorian and Grogu" will gross less than $92 million domestically across its 4-day opening weekend, May 22–25, 2026. It resolves after final Daily Box Office Performance numbers are posted by The Numbers, with resolution expected on May 26, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $8,843 in smart money activity and 1 recent smart money signal on this market.

This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,684.

Categories: Movies, Culture, box office, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Profitable box-office specialist

A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader is making a sizable No bet on a box-office bracket despite the alert’s low composite score.

This bettor has traded across 122 markets and is up about $641K lifetime.
They put $8.8K on No, implying conviction that the 4-day opening weekend will not be below $92M.
The market has moved against their entry, so the same side may be available cheaper than they paid.

$8,843 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

Profitable bettor flips Yes

Surface due to sharp-wallet override: a profitable 76% winner is buying Yes after previously closing the opposite position, despite only weak detection signals.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $38k lifetime.
They previously closed a No position and are now buying Yes at 39¢, signaling a thesis shift.
The market has moved 11.5 points in a day, supporting the same direction as this buy.

$1,840 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%