Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will cease to be President of Türkiye at any point before December 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes if he resigns, is removed, or otherwise leaves office for any period before the deadline, including if an announced departure is made before the market ends. PolySpotter tracks smart money activity on this market, including recent whale signals and current odds movement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,799.

Categories: Geopolitics, Turkey, Politics, World, Earn 4%

Notable Trades

94% win-rate whale

A bettor with a 94% win rate made a nearly $5.8k buy on No in a quiet political market, accounting for 591% of 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $21k across 18 settled markets
  • They bought nearly $5.8k of No in a market with just $981 of 24h volume, a sign of strong conviction
  • Entry at 90¢ suggests they see Erdoğan staying in office as a high-probability outcome

$5,799 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x3555...9a81 Yes, $39,309
  2. 0x898a...e290 Yes, $28,342
  3. 0x3c8a...b45a No, $26,675
  4. 0x8de9...3113 Yes, $9,689
  5. 0x5c6d...21c9 No, $7,880 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x8b88...5f5e No, $7,874
  7. 0x2881...2091 Yes, $7,571
  8. 0x1f0a...f7aa No, $7,171
  9. 0x5063...773d No, $6,443 (94% win rate)
  10. 0x2858...5964 No, $6,401 (100% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

261d$5,799 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsTurkeyPoliticsWorldEarn 4%
Yes
11¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
92¢
90¢
87¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

5h ago

$5,799 on No at 90¢

90¢90¢

Related Theses