Part of: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
This prediction market tracks whether Democrats win control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm election. It resolves on November 3, 2026, based on the party controlling each chamber under the market’s stated rules; recent activity includes signals both for and against the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
22 smart money signals detected, totaling $116,301.
Categories: Politics, US Election, Elections, Midterms, Earn 4%, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50, United States, Main Election, Global Elections
Notable Trades
17-wallet funded cluster against Yes
A 17-wallet shared-funder cluster and a highly profitable wallet are positioning against Yes in a liquid 2026 balance-of-power market.
- A network of 17 wallets sharing one funder has put $7,692 into this market across recent activity.
- This wallet has won 87% of 483 resolved bets and is up $16,553 lifetime.
- The $1,661 sell of Yes at 50¢ converts to a purchase of No at roughly 50¢, signaling a bearish view on the listed outcome.
$1,661 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Proven serial trader buys No
A proven 78% win-rate trader with $66,936 in profits is taking a fresh bearish position against Yes after extensive cross-market activity.
- This bettor wins 78% of 435 resolved trades and is up $66,936 lifetime.
- The trader has participated across 88 events and 91 markets, giving the position meaningful cross-market context.
- Selling Yes at 50¢ is equivalent to buying No at roughly 50¢, implying confidence that this outcome will not resolve Yes.
$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Six-wallet cluster adds to Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster is reinforcing a substantial existing Yes position at near-even odds, making this a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite only moderate individual track record.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are associated with this coordinated position, a strong concentration signal.
- This bettor added $3,435 to an existing $7,010 Yes position at 49¢, showing increased conviction.
- The wallet has 149 resolved bets and is up $73,658, though its 65% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.
$1,160 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
91% win-rate bettor buys Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a 91% win rate and substantial positive edge has placed a fresh $2,210 bet near even odds.
- This bettor wins 91% of 352 resolved trades and is up nearly $1.2 million.
- The 48¢ entry implies substantial upside if this proven edge applies to the market.
- The wallet has traded 545 markets across 434 events, providing a broad and unusually strong track record.
$6,455 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
91% win-rate bettor buys Yes
A highly profitable bettor with a 91% win rate and substantial positive edge has placed a fresh $2,210 bet near even odds.
- This bettor wins 91% of 352 resolved trades and is up nearly $1.2 million.
- The 48¢ entry implies substantial upside if this proven edge applies to the market.
- The wallet has traded 545 markets across 434 events, providing a broad and unusually strong track record.
$2,210 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Six-wallet cluster adds to Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster is reinforcing a substantial existing Yes position at near-even odds, making this a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite only moderate individual track record.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are associated with this coordinated position, a strong concentration signal.
- This bettor added $3,435 to an existing $7,010 Yes position at 49¢, showing increased conviction.
- The wallet has 149 resolved bets and is up $73,658, though its 65% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.
$3,383 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp bettor scales into Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial measured edge added $26.5K to an already large Yes position at 44 cents.
- This bettor wins 84% of 171 resolved positions and is up $1.14 million.
- They added $26,497 to an existing Yes position, bringing total investment in the market above $86,000.
- The trade was over 30 times the market's 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction despite the market's wide time horizon.
$4,673 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Six-wallet cluster adds to Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster is reinforcing a substantial existing Yes position at near-even odds, making this a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite only moderate individual track record.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are associated with this coordinated position, a strong concentration signal.
- This bettor added $3,435 to an existing $7,010 Yes position at 49¢, showing increased conviction.
- The wallet has 149 resolved bets and is up $73,658, though its 65% win rate is only moderate evidence of an edge.
$3,435 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Three-wallet shift toward Yes
Three wallets are aligning on Yes with $11,041 of flow, including two additions to existing Yes positions and a large No reduction, alongside an 87% cross-market win-rate signal.
- Three wallets moved $11,041 toward Yes, including a $6,076 No sale equivalent to buying Yes near 48¢.
- Two wallets are adding to existing Yes positions, while the third is reducing a large No position—an unusually clear directional shift.
- The wallets also traded across three related markets with an 87% win rate, though much of the positioning is not new.
$11,041 on Yes
Sharp bettor scales into Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial measured edge added $26.5K to an already large Yes position at 44 cents.
- This bettor wins 84% of 171 resolved positions and is up $1.14 million.
- They added $26,497 to an existing Yes position, bringing total investment in the market above $86,000.
- The trade was over 30 times the market's 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction despite the market's wide time horizon.
$26,497 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $647,951
- 0x9771...5a0a — No, $75,853 (42% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $72,277 (72% win rate)
- 0x44d9...4c1a — Yes, $60,726 (53% win rate)
- 0x2755...5016 — Yes, $52,640 (43% win rate)
- 0xcfee...ffcd — No, $51,849
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $48,209 (82% win rate)
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Yes, $45,161 (59% win rate)
- 0xc021...1fa8 — Yes, $44,133 (50% win rate)
- 0x011f...1122 — No, $39,257 (39% win rate)
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