Part of: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

This market tracks whether Democrats will control both the U.S. Senate and U.S. House after the 2026 midterm elections. It resolves based on the official 2026 election results, with control defined by a majority of voting House seats and Senate control including the Vice President tie-breaker where applicable. PolySpotter is tracking $1,710 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $54,785.

Categories: Politics, US Election, Elections, Midterms, Earn 4%, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50, United States, Main Election, Global Elections

Notable Trades

Profitable serial politics trader

Surface as a moderate-conviction copy candidate: a profitable serial cross-market political bettor with an 83% resolved win rate is adding to an existing No position.

  • This bettor has won 83% of resolved trades and is up $32.6K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 29 related events with an 83% win rate, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
  • They are adding to an existing No position at 57¢, increasing conviction on this outcome.

$1,710 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

90% winner fading Yes

A highly profitable 90% winner is net selling Yes on this 2026 Democratic sweep market while also trading a broader cross-market election thesis.

  • This bettor has won 26 of 29 resolved bets and is up $145.9k lifetime.
  • They are net selling Yes here, equivalent to buying No around 59¢.
  • The wallet has $28.8k across 3 related 2026 election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$12,386 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

90% winner fading Yes

A highly profitable 90% winner is net selling Yes on this 2026 Democratic sweep market while also trading a broader cross-market election thesis.

  • This bettor has won 26 of 29 resolved bets and is up $145.9k lifetime.
  • They are net selling Yes here, equivalent to buying No around 59¢.
  • The wallet has $28.8k across 3 related 2026 election markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$23,248 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Sharp political bettor

Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has an 86% record over 37 resolved trades with positive lifetime P&L and is buying Yes at 42¢.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $12.7K lifetime.
  • Their past bets beat market-implied odds by about 23 percentage points.
  • Entry at 42¢ suggests they see upside in a liquid 2026 midterms market.

$1,109 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market politics trader with a large profitable history is effectively buying Yes at 45¢ on a long-dated 2026 balance-of-power market.

  • This bettor has a huge track record: 36,903 resolved bets and $411K in lifetime profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 508 events and $2.3M in tracked cross-market volume.
  • Selling No at 55¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 45¢, taking the view Democrats control both chambers after 2026.

$1,849 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

One-day repeat bettor

Very new wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early positive P&L is taking the No side on a liquid 2026 balance-of-power market.

  • This wallet is only 1 day old but has already made 9 flagged large bets totaling $33.5k.
  • It is up about $4.0k so far despite having almost no resolved track record yet.
  • Selling Yes at 44¢ is equivalent to buying No at 56¢.

$2,475 on No | Wallet win rate: 0%

Fresh wallet scaling politics

A 1-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early positive P&L is adding a $3k Yes position on a major 2026 politics market.

  • This wallet is only 1 day old but has already made 7 large flagged bets totaling $27.6k.
  • It is up about $4.0k on $23.8k invested despite having almost no resolved history yet.
  • Buying Yes at 45¢ suggests a mid-sized conviction bet on Democrats controlling both chambers.

$3,041 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%

4-wallet funded politics cluster

A profitable, high-volume political bettor is effectively buying Yes at 46¢ as part of a recurring 4-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has 581 resolved trades and is up about $31.9K lifetime.
  • Four wallets funded by the same source have appeared together across runs, suggesting coordinated positioning.
  • Selling No at 54¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 46¢ on Democratic control of both chambers.

$1,240 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume political trader with a long serial cross-market history bought No at 54¢ on a major 2026 balance-of-power market.

  • This bettor wins 70% of resolved trades and is up $146,828 lifetime.
  • They have traded across 298 events with over $1.1M in cross-market activity.
  • Buying No at 54¢ suggests they are fading the Democratic Senate-and-House sweep outcome.

$1,727 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

89% winner flips Yes

Sharp political bettor with an 89% win rate and $409k lifetime profit is buying Yes at 44¢ despite this being a liquid long-dated market.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved positions and is up $409k lifetime.
  • They bought $2.6k of Yes at 44¢ after previously closing a No position, suggesting a thesis shift.
  • Entry at 44¢ implies they see upside in a liquid 2026 midterm control market.

$2,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $521,994
  2. 0x6139...6b7a Yes, $72,277 (71% win rate)
  3. 0x9771...5a0a No, $72,063 (42% win rate)
  4. 0x44d9...4c1a Yes, $60,726 (53% win rate)
  5. 0x2755...5016 Yes, $52,640 (43% win rate)
  6. 0xc021...1fa8 Yes, $46,390 (54% win rate)
  7. 0xf566...1386 Yes, $37,774 (60% win rate)
  8. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $34,570 (80% win rate)
  9. 0xf2f6...5817 Yes, $26,048 (75% win rate)
  10. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $24,294 (48% win rate)

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Türkiye-US match gets played

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2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

104dBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms$54,785 tracked12 signalsPoliticsUS ElectionElectionsMidtermsEarn 4%Rewards 20, 4.5, 50United StatesMain ElectionGlobal Elections
Yes
44¢
No
56¢

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “No
58¢
56¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

9d ago

$1,710 on No at 57¢

57¢56¢1¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

21d ago

$12,386 on No at 59¢

59¢56¢3¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

21d ago

$23,248 on No at 59¢

59¢56¢3¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

28d ago

$1,109 on Yes at 42¢

42¢44¢2¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

42d ago

$1,849 on Yes at 45¢

45¢44¢1¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

45d ago

$2,475 on No at 56¢

56¢56¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

45d ago

$3,041 on Yes at 45¢

45¢44¢1¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

57d ago

$1,240 on Yes at 46¢

46¢44¢2¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

63d ago

$1,727 on No at 54¢

54¢56¢2¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

64d ago

$2,600 on Yes at 44¢

44¢44¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

65d ago

$1,401 on No at 57¢

57¢56¢1¢

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

69d ago

$2,000 on No at 57¢

57¢56¢1¢

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Brazil-Japan match will happen
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Türkiye-US match gets played
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Japan-Sweden match will happen
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