Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will restore US customer access to Claude Fable 5, also known as Claude Mythos, by 11:59 PM ET on June 15, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,095 in smart money across 1 signal, with the latest profitable-wallet alert backing No; check the live market price for the current implied odds. The market resolves Yes only if access to the same qualifying model is restored to US customers by the deadline.

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,095.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

Profitable new wallet backing No

New 11-day wallet with repeat flagged bets and early profitability is adding a meaningful No position on a topical, near-deadline market.

  • This 11-day-old wallet is already 3-for-3 on resolved bets and up $511.
  • It has now been flagged 3 times for larger bets, with $3,699 total across positions.
  • Buying No at 83¢ suggests confidence that access will not be restored by the deadline.

$1,095 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1e1f...c855 Yes, $3,018 (57% win rate)
  2. 0xc438...3ae6 Yes, $1,512 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x1936...1d16 No, $1,313 (100% win rate)
  4. 0x6950...b32a No, $1,252 (56% win rate)
  5. 0x20da...3f28 No, $1,208 (79% win rate)
  6. 0x0a2f...31ae Yes, $1,113
  7. 0x7365...64da Yes, $1,072 (52% win rate)
  8. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $800 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x93a9...0b88 Yes, $800 (100% win rate)
  10. 0xafa7...2cee No, $791

Related Theses

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 2 related markets

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

1dClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$1,095 tracked1 signalClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump
Yes
16¢
No
85¢

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No
93¢
85¢
78¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

2h ago

$1,095 on No at 83¢

83¢85¢2¢

Related Theses