Part of: EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?

EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying attack is an act of sabotage or arson, the placement or detonation of an explosive or incendiary device, or a physical attack on persons or property, carried out within the territory of an EU member state on or after August 1, 2026. The following will not qualify: cyber operations; electronic interference such as GPS jamming or spoofing; espionage, surveillance, or reconnaissance; disinformation or influence operations; violations of airspace or territorial waters; drones, missiles, or other munitions launched by Russian armed forces, whether or not they are intercepted; and threats or plots that were not carried out. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity stating that the attack was carried out, ordered, or directed by the Russian state, including its armed forces or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by that state’s prosecutors alleging that the attack was carried out on behalf of the aforementioned Russian state services will also qualify. Statements describing Russian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that an attack bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Russian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials, by governments of other countries, or by EU or NATO institutions will not qualify on their own. Attributions made before market creation, and re-attributions regarding previously attributed attacks, will not qualify. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Russian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the government of the relevant EU member state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,549.

Categories: World, Europe, Russia, Politics, Geopolitics, European Union

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor adds to Yes position

A substantial add to an existing Yes position exceeded the market’s 24-hour volume and coincided with a sharp price rise, though the wallet’s track record does not show a clear edge over its typical entry odds.

  • The bettor added $2,535 to an existing Yes position, more than the market’s $1,562 in 24-hour volume.
  • Yes rose from the 53¢ entry to about 87¢, a sharp move that supports the trade’s significance.
  • The wallet is up about $43,862 lifetime, but its 64% win rate versus a 79¢ average winning entry is not strong evidence of a betting edge.

$2,535 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Sharp bettor adds to No

A proven, highly active bettor with a 79% win rate added meaningfully to an already profitable No position in a thin market.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 1,193 resolved trades and is up nearly $50,000.
  • They added $1,116 to an existing No position, showing increased conviction after No moved from 50¢ to 64¢.
  • The trade represented about 29% of the market's 24-hour volume, while the wallet has traded across 54 markets and 36 events.

$1,898 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Sharp bettor adds to No

A proven, highly active bettor with a 79% win rate added meaningfully to an already profitable No position in a thin market.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 1,193 resolved trades and is up nearly $50,000.
  • They added $1,116 to an existing No position, showing increased conviction after No moved from 50¢ to 64¢.
  • The trade represented about 29% of the market's 24-hour volume, while the wallet has traded across 54 markets and 36 events.

$1,116 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0x748a...3c56 — No, $3,060 (48% win rate)
  2. 0x9ca1...13b5 — No, $2,477 (60% win rate)
  3. 0xee67...67a6 — No, $1,309
  4. 0x4079...7126 — No, $664
  5. 0xff52...4546 — No, $500
  6. 0x93d4...7345 — No, $482 (93% win rate)
  7. 0x07b9...0fbb — No, $250
  8. 0xdc70...cc56 — No, $225 (75% win rate)
  9. 0xac4a...bf1e — No, $166
  10. 0x2155...017a — Yes, $132

Related Theses

Iran deal arrives after June

Covers 8 related markets

Ruth González Silva will win

Covers 1 related market

Clarity Act won't become law

Covers 1 related market

Google Maps renames Lake Ontario

Covers 1 related market

Mythos model release delayed past September

Covers 2 related markets

Iran closes airspace after May 15

Covers 3 related markets

Skin cancer vaccine approval delayed past 2027

Covers 1 related market

Valles Sampedro will win Sonora

Covers 1 related market

Fed will hike by September 2026

Covers 1 related market

Janaina Riva will place second

Covers 1 related market

EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?

EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?$5,549 tracked3 signalsWorldEuropeRussiaPoliticsGeopoliticsEuropean Union
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying attack is an act of sabotage or arson, the placement or detonation of an explosive or incendiary device, or a physical attack on persons or property, carried out within the territory of an EU member state on or after August 1, 2026. The following will not qualify: cyber operations; electronic interference such as GPS jamming or spoofing; espionage, surveillance, or reconnaissance; disinformation or influence operations; violations of airspace or territorial waters; drones, missiles, or other munitions launched by Russian armed forces, whether or not they are intercepted; and threats or plots that were not carried out. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity stating that the attack was carried out, ordered, or directed by the Russian state, including its armed forces or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by that state’s prosecutors alleging that the attack was carried out on behalf of the aforementioned Russian state services will also qualify. Statements describing Russian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that an attack bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Russian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials, by governments of other countries, or by EU or NATO institutions will not qualify on their own. Attributions made before market creation, and re-attributions regarding previously attributed attacks, will not qualify. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Russian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the government of the relevant EU member state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?

2026-09-29 07:41 UTC

$2,535 on Yes at 53¢

53¢→100¢↑47¢

EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?

2026-09-19 15:42 UTC

$1,898 on No at 50¢

EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?

2026-09-19 13:16 UTC

$1,116 on No at 50¢

Related Theses