Part of: France declares state of emergency by...?

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether a legally binding decree declaring a French state of emergency under the 1955 law will take effect by December 31, 2026. The supplied data does not include current odds, but it reports a $125,606 smart-money signal on No; the market resolves by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $251,076.

Categories: World, Europe, France, Politics, Protests, France Riots

Notable Trades

New wallet doubling down on No

A wallet less than a day old added a $78.5K No trade to an existing $90.9K position, a sizable commitment relative to the market's recent volume.

  • A wallet less than 24 hours old put another $78.5K on No, after already investing about $90.9K.
  • The new trade is 3.4 times the market's 24-hour volume, showing substantial conviction.
  • No was bought at 86¢ and is now around 90¢; the wallet has no resolved bets to establish a track record.

$46,936 on No

New wallet doubling down on No

A wallet less than a day old added a $78.5K No trade to an existing $90.9K position, a sizable commitment relative to the market's recent volume.

  • A wallet less than 24 hours old put another $78.5K on No, after already investing about $90.9K.
  • The new trade is 3.4 times the market's 24-hour volume, showing substantial conviction.
  • No was bought at 86¢ and is now around 90¢; the wallet has no resolved bets to establish a track record.

$78,534 on No

Four-wallet, $125K No surge

Four wallets placed $125,606 on No in a sharp, unusually large burst that dwarfs recent market volume, despite mixed or weak wallet track records.

  • Four wallets bought No for a combined $125,606—about 95 times the market’s $1,318 in 24-hour volume.
  • The burst coincided with a 9.5-point daily drop in Yes odds, reinforcing the No direction.
  • Several wallets have mixed or losing records, so the coordinated size stands out more than their track records.

$125,606 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x3d68...a444 — No, $105,007
  2. 0xa58d...b9b8 — Yes, $46,402 (43% win rate)
  3. 0x9c9f...e2d2 — Yes, $20,235 (69% win rate)
  4. 0xfffa...864b — No, $8,285 (85% win rate)
  5. 0x6bcf...324e — Yes, $7,350 (22% win rate)
  6. 0x2927...051d — Yes, $5,000
  7. 0x6789...bbbc — Yes, $4,800
  8. 0x76f9...9d10 — No, $4,200 (100% win rate)
  9. 0xeed7...16b2 — Yes, $4,024 (50% win rate)
  10. 0x19f1...599e — No, $3,676 (93% win rate)

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

France declares state of emergency by...?$251,076 tracked3 signalsWorldEuropeFrancePoliticsProtestsFrance Riots
Yes
7¢
No
94¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No”
95¢
93¢
90¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-26 08:58 UTC

$46,936 on No at 86¢

86¢→94¢↑8¢

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-25 10:12 UTC

$78,534 on No at 86¢

86¢→94¢↑8¢

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-23 11:56 UTC

$125,606 on No at 85¢

85¢→94¢↑9¢