This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved trades and is up about $48K lifetime. They bought Yes at 50¢ while the market has moved up 8 points in the last day. Entry at 50¢ implies they see Portugal as underpriced despite current odds near 52%.

Part of: Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,049.

Categories: Eurovision, Music, Culture

Notable Trades

94% winner buys Yes

Sharp profitable wallet with a 94% resolved win rate bought Portugal Yes at 50¢ in a niche Eurovision market that has been moving upward.

This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved trades and is up about $48K lifetime.
They bought Yes at 50¢ while the market has moved up 8 points in the last day.
Entry at 50¢ implies they see Portugal as underpriced despite current odds near 52%.

$1,049 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

0x94c4...43ca — Outcome 35453044, $17,950 (94% win rate)
0x56d4...9c57 — Outcome 35453044, $2,285 (86% win rate)
0xecde...c846 — Outcome 35453044, $1,476
0x997b...801e — Outcome 35453044, $1,193 (40% win rate)
0x7b23...0d60 — Outcome 42612477, $1,040 (59% win rate)
0x04db...f0fd — Outcome 35453044, $1,000
0x06c1...f1f2 — Outcome 35453044, $779 (71% win rate)
0xa44b...eb27 — Outcome 42612477, $779
0x736d...c635 — Outcome 35453044, $720
0xa440...a487 — Outcome 35453044, $650

Related Theses

Bulgaria advances, Switzerland falls

Covers 2 related markets

Finland beats Greece at Eurovision

Covers 2 related markets

Greece top ten, others miss

Covers 3 related markets

Poland and Portugal advance

Covers 2 related markets

Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

ResolvedEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final$1,049 tracked1 signalEurovisionMusicCulture

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Price History — “Yes”

53¢

41¢

30¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction