Part of: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,626.
Categories: AI, Tech, Fable, Claude, Anthropic, AI Releases, Claude Mythos
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adds to No
A profitable, highly active trader added a sizable No position, while a detected price move and current odds reinforce that direction.
- This trader is up $120,000 across more than 2,200 resolved bets, though their 67% win rate is not exceptional against the average winning price.
- They bought $1,541 of No at 89¢, adding to an existing position as No moved to 92%.
- A detected 26.6% price move beyond the market’s prior range also points toward No.
$1,541 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable trader cuts Yes after breakdown
A profitable, experienced trader sold Yes after a sharp price break, though the trade reduces an existing position rather than opening a fresh No bet.
- This trader is up $121,920 across 734 resolved markets and has traded across 46 events.
- They sold Yes at 46¢ as the market broke sharply lower, but were reducing an existing Yes position entered at 72¢.
- The equivalent copy is a No buy at 54¢; this may reflect risk reduction rather than a new bearish position.
$1,085 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
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