A 20-hour-old wallet has already placed $14.3k in flagged Claude-related bets. This $3.9k Yes buy was 183% of recent 24h volume on a thin market. Buying Yes at 80¢ signals strong confidence despite no resolved track record yet.

Part of: Claude 5 released by…?

Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 12 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,313.

Categories: AI, Tech, Claude 5

Notable Trades

New whale backing Yes

A 21-hour-old wallet is repeatedly placing large Claude-related bets, including $4.5k on Yes here and $18.8k total flagged exposure.

A 21-hour-old wallet has already made 5 large flagged bets totaling $18.8k.
This trade bought $4.5k of Yes at 81¢, a large position versus $7.0k market liquidity.
The wallet is also positioned across 2 related markets with $14.9k in same-event exposure.

$4,455 on Yes

Profitable serial AI bettor

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is adding to a broader Claude 5 release thesis across four related markets.

This bettor has a long record: 67% wins and $80.6k profit across 1,418 resolved trades.
They are betting the same Claude 5 thesis across 4 related markets with $21.6k total exposure.
This buy at 83¢ is a favorite-side conviction bet, though upside is more limited than a long-shot entry.

$1,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

New Claude whale

A brand-new wallet is repeatedly making large Claude-related bets, including a $3.9k Yes buy that dwarfed recent volume on a thin market.

A 20-hour-old wallet has already placed $14.3k in flagged Claude-related bets.
This $3.9k Yes buy was 183% of recent 24h volume on a thin market.
Buying Yes at 80¢ signals strong confidence despite no resolved track record yet.

$3,912 on Yes

Profitable high-win bettor

A profitable 83% win-rate wallet made a fresh Yes buy that overwhelms this thin, low-volume market, making the trader more notable than the signal alone.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $5.1k lifetime across 1,058 outcomes.
The $2.7k Yes buy is larger than this market’s full reported volume, showing strong conviction in a thin book.
Entry at 80¢ means they are backing Claude 5 release by the deadline as a high-probability outcome.

$2,692 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%