Claude 5 released by…?
18 signals across 3 markets · $65,906 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 3-wallet AI thesis cluster
Three wallets piled into Yes on a thin AI release market during an 89x volume spike, led by a high-volume cross-market trader and one wallet with a strong 76% win rate.
$14,557Score: 14.0 - 77% winner flips bullish
A profitable 77% win-rate trader with broad cross-market experience is taking a fresh $2.9k Yes position at 32¢ after previously closing a No position, signaling a clear thesis reversal worth tracking.
$2,880Wallet win rate: 43%Score: 11.0 - Sharp cross-market thesis trader
A proven profitable serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate opened a fresh $2.8k Yes position on Claude 5 after previously closing the opposite side, making this a notable thesis reversal worth tracking.
$2,816Wallet win rate: 43%Score: 11.0 - 77% win-rate event trader
Profitable serial event trader with a 77% win rate is making a fresh $2.8k Yes bet on this Claude 5 market after previously closing the opposite side.
$2,809Wallet win rate: 43%Score: 11.0 - 77% win-rate event trader
A profitable serial event trader with a 77% win rate opened a fresh $2.6k Yes position at 30¢ in this Claude 5 market after previously closing the opposite side, signaling a deliberate thesis change.
$2,556Wallet win rate: 43%Score: 11.0 - 3-wallet push into No
Three wallets dumped Yes across this Claude 5 market, driving a 20-point price drop on heavy volume, with one large profitable high-volume trader involved and sells translating cleanly into a No buy thesis.
$10,674Score: 11.0 - Profitable AI thesis trader
A large, profitable serial cross-market trader with 600 resolved bets is re-entering this AI release market and has built a broad thesis across 6 related markets in the same event.
$4,633Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 9.0 - Profitable event-thesis trader
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader with 601 resolved bets is expressing a broader event thesis across 6 related Claude 5 markets, and this trade translates to buying No around 77¢.
$3,089Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 9.0 - Profitable serial AI-event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with 600 resolved bets and $235k profit is reopening a Yes position in Claude 5 after betting this event across 6 related markets.
$2,909Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 8.0 - Proven Anthropic thesis trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 601 resolved bets is adding to a broader Anthropic thesis as this market breaks higher.
$3,852Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xc6dd72…4b9f$18,810 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x00425c…321e$13,808 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 43% wins
- 0x9aeb53…2729$8,058 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 67% wins