Claude 5 released by…?
33 signals across 5 markets · $112,679 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on when Anthropic’s Claude 5 model will be publicly released, with separate markets for April 30, May 31, and June 30, 2026. PolySpotter has tracked $65,906 in smart money activity across 18 signals, including AI thesis wallets, a 77% win-rate event trader, and sharp cross-market positioning.
Markets (5)
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?12 signals · $51,405 tracked
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?8 signals · $26,864 tracked
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?6 signals · $15,925 tracked
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?4 signals · $12,313 tracked
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?3 signals · $6,171 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 3-wallet AI thesis cluster
Three wallets piled into Yes on a thin AI release market during an 89x volume spike, led by a high-volume cross-market trader and one wallet with a strong 76% win rate.
$14,557Score: 14.0 - 77% winner flips bullish
A profitable 77% win-rate trader with broad cross-market experience is taking a fresh $2.9k Yes position at 32¢ after previously closing a No position, signaling a clear thesis reversal worth tracking.
$2,880Wallet win rate: 51%Score: 11.0 - Sharp cross-market thesis trader
A proven profitable serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate opened a fresh $2.8k Yes position on Claude 5 after previously closing the opposite side, making this a notable thesis reversal worth tracking.
$2,816Wallet win rate: 51%Score: 11.0 - 77% win-rate event trader
Profitable serial event trader with a 77% win rate is making a fresh $2.8k Yes bet on this Claude 5 market after previously closing the opposite side.
$2,809Wallet win rate: 51%Score: 11.0 - 77% win-rate event trader
A profitable serial event trader with a 77% win rate opened a fresh $2.6k Yes position at 30¢ in this Claude 5 market after previously closing the opposite side, signaling a deliberate thesis change.
$2,556Wallet win rate: 51%Score: 11.0 - 3-wallet push into No
Three wallets dumped Yes across this Claude 5 market, driving a 20-point price drop on heavy volume, with one large profitable high-volume trader involved and sells translating cleanly into a No buy thesis.
$10,674Score: 11.0 - Profitable AI thesis trader
A large, profitable serial cross-market trader with 600 resolved bets is re-entering this AI release market and has built a broad thesis across 6 related markets in the same event.
$4,633Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 9.0 - Profitable event-thesis trader
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader with 601 resolved bets is expressing a broader event thesis across 6 related Claude 5 markets, and this trade translates to buying No around 77¢.
$3,089Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 9.0 - New Claude whale
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly making large Claude-related bets, including a $3.9k Yes buy that dwarfed recent volume on a thin market.
$3,912Score: 9.0 - Proven Anthropic thesis trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 601 resolved bets is adding to a broader Anthropic thesis as this market breaks higher.
$3,852Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xc6dd72…4b9f$18,810 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 69% wins
- 0x1d9b13…c32d$18,430 · 2 markets · 4 alerts
- 0x00425c…321e$13,808 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 51% wins
- 0x9aeb53…2729$10,863 · 4 markets · 6 alerts · 68% wins
- 0x6bab66…0fe5$7,960 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 71% wins
- 0x757828…6426$4,507 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
- 0xb10047…6461$3,684 · 1 market · 1 alert · 59% wins
- 0x4e4203…49ed$3,199 · 1 market · 1 alert · 51% wins
- 0x63850c…93f2$2,692 · 1 market · 1 alert · 83% wins
- 0x01de00…a558$2,487 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 42% wins
FAQs
What are the Claude 5 release odds on Polymarket?
The event aggregates prediction-market odds across multiple Claude 5 release deadlines, including April 30, May 31, and June 30, 2026. Each child market reflects traders’ expectations for whether Claude 5 will be publicly available by that date.
What counts as Claude 5 being released?
For these markets, Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible to the general public, such as through open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. Closed beta access or private availability would not be enough.
What is the smart money doing on Claude 5?
PolySpotter has tracked 18 smart money signals totaling $65,906 across the event. Recent alerts include a 3-wallet AI thesis cluster, a 77% win-rate event trader, a bullish flip by a 77% winner, and a sharp cross-market thesis trader.
Which Claude 5 release dates are being traded?
The event includes markets on whether Claude 5 will be released by April 30, 2026, May 31, 2026, and June 30, 2026. Comparing these markets can show how traders price the probability of release across different time windows.
When will the Claude 5 markets resolve?
The event is listed to resolve by April 30, 2026, though individual child markets are tied to their specific release deadlines. Resolution depends on whether Anthropic publicly announces and makes Claude 5 generally accessible by the relevant date.