Part of: Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether any AI model will reach an Overall Arena Score of at least 1510 on the Text Arena leaderboard by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves using the Score column on the Text Arena | Overall leaderboard with style control off; current market odds are shown on the live market page.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,963.

Categories: AI, Tech, Big Tech, AI Benchmarks

Notable Trades

Proven bettor scales into Yes

A proven profitable bettor with a 79% win rate added nearly $6,000 to an existing Yes position at 86%, driving a major repricing in a relatively thin market.

  • This bettor wins 79% of 71 resolved trades and is up $12,631 overall.
  • They added nearly $6,000 to an existing Yes position at 86%, signaling increased conviction.
  • The trade helped push Yes from 33% to 96% in a market with only $10,104 in liquidity.

$5,963 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0x77c8...bc8c — Outcome 52374135, $4,974 (37% win rate)
  2. 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 52374135, $2,018
  3. 0xfe49...7a4c — Outcome 52374135, $1,243 (50% win rate)
  4. 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 52374135, $600 (49% win rate)
  5. 0x90b8...8665 — Outcome 52374135, $390
  6. 0xabff...6b73 — Outcome 52374135, $256
  7. 0x8030...7b74 — Outcome 52374135, $60
  8. 0x7770...518d — Outcome 52374135, $59
  9. 0x3329...43a6 — Outcome 52374135, $56
  10. 0x9a94...d5f9 — Outcome 52374135, $50

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

17dWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?$5,963 tracked1 signalAITechBig TechAI Benchmarks

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Price History — “Yes”
102¢
69¢
36¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

46d ago

$5,963 on Yes at 86¢