Part of: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether MicroStrategy will sell any of its Bitcoin holdings by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. It resolves based primarily on MicroStrategy disclosures and on-chain data, with credible reporting used if needed. PolySpotter is tracking $3,395 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent alerts around NO buying clusters, coordinated YES buyers, and whale positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $53,045.
Categories: Finance, Economy, Business, 2025 Predictions, Crypto, MicroStrategy, Stocks
Notable Trades
New wallet flips Yes
A 1-day-old wallet with early profits is repeatedly making large directional bets and has flipped from a closed No position into Yes exposure as the market moved sharply.
- A brand-new wallet is already up about $1.1K and has had 3 large-bet alerts in its first day.
- They sold No twice around 67–68¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes around 32–33¢.
- This looks like a fresh directional flip after previously closing a No position, while Yes has moved sharply in the last day.
$3,395 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 0%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a long profitable history bought No after a sharp one-day move against that side.
- This bettor has a large track record: 824 resolved bets, 62% winners, and about $333k in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 26 events and $424k of flagged activity.
- Buying No at 69¢ after a 27-point drop suggests they may be fading an overreaction.
$1,479 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable serial trader
Serial cross-market trader with a large profitable history is buying No on the MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale market, though the signal is moderate and the market is liquid.
- This bettor has a long track record: 824 resolved bets, 62% winners, and about $333K in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $421K flagged across 48 markets, suggesting this may fit a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 68¢ goes with recent market momentum, as Yes has fallen 9.5% over the past day.
$3,219 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market thesis
Experienced profitable wallet is building a cross-market MicroStrategy Bitcoin-sale thesis, though this specific add is modest in a liquid market.
- This bettor is profitable over 74 resolved trades, with a 68% hit rate and about $29.9K in gains.
- They have positioned across 3 related markets with about $21.9K total exposure, suggesting a broader MicroStrategy thesis.
- This buy at 36¢ targets a payout of about 2.8x if MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin before the deadline.
$1,670 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
New whale fading Yes
A 20-day-old repeat whale is building a cross-market No thesis despite weak early P&L, with $40k flagged across 12 large bets and $20.5k tied to this event.
- A 20-day-old wallet has already made 12 flagged large bets totaling about $40k.
- This is part of a broader 3-market thesis in the same event, with $20.5k positioned across related markets.
- The trade sells Yes at 36¢, equivalent to buying No at 64¢ while the market has moved 5 points toward Yes today.
$3,802 on No | Wallet win rate: 25%
New repeat whale thesis
A 20-day-old repeat large bettor is building a cross-market Yes thesis on MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin, but the wallet’s resolved track record is weak so this is mainly a conviction-flow alert.
- This 20-day-old wallet has now been flagged 10 times, with $33.4K in notable bets already.
- The bettor is taking the same view across 3 related markets, totaling $20.6K in this event.
- Entry around 38–40¢ follows a 6-point daily move, suggesting they are adding into momentum.
$3,895 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 25%
Coordinated Yes buyers
Four wallets bought the same long-shot Yes outcome for $11.7k, including profitable wallets and a repeat new large bettor with related cross-market positioning.
- Four wallets are all buying the same Yes outcome, totaling $11.7k at roughly 13¢ average entry.
- Two participating wallets have strong records, including one up $87.6k with 76% wins and another up $17.2k with 67% wins.
- The flow spans 3 related markets with $15.8k positioned, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$11,674 on Yes
83% cross-market whale
Highly profitable 83% win-rate wallet is making a cross-market thesis on MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin, with $604K positioned across 5 related markets.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $430K lifetime.
- They have built a $604K position across 5 related MicroStrategy Bitcoin-sale markets.
- Entry at 11¢ implies a high-upside bet against the market’s current 12% odds.
$3,704 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
19-wallet cluster buying NO
High-score alert driven by a 19-wallet funded cluster and a serial cross-market trader putting $20k on No, though the wallet’s lifetime P&L is negative despite an 87% hit rate.
- A 19-wallet funded network is behind this trader, with linked wallets seen across prior runs.
- This wallet has traded 129 markets across 89 events and wins 87% of resolved bets.
- The $20k No buy is large versus the market’s $46k liquidity, showing concentrated conviction at 89¢.
$20,210 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0x7ab4...716b — Yes, $77,259 (47% win rate)
- 0x71ed...d338 — Yes, $57,402 (83% win rate)
- 0x184e...cf96 — No, $55,186
- 0x2a0e...a6fc — Yes, $50,390
- 0x6e13...a801 — No, $47,188 (52% win rate)
- 0xa0c3...5b9a — Yes, $37,033 (61% win rate)
- 0xa6d9...fd2f — Yes, $35,856 (82% win rate)
- 0x6bab...1292 — No, $32,813 (58% win rate)
- 0xb323...27df — Yes, $30,116
- 0xdc26...7e7d — Yes, $28,740 (68% win rate)
Related Theses
MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin soon
Covers 3 related markets
