Part of: Claude 5 released by…?
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,864.
Categories: AI, Tech, Claude 5
Notable Trades
Profitable AI-event specialist
A high-volume serial event trader with 601 resolved bets and $233k profit is buying No again across six related Claude markets, signaling a coordinated thesis despite this specific fill being modest.
- This bettor has 601 resolved bets, wins 67% of the time, and is up $233k lifetime.
- They have put $42.8k across 6 related Claude markets, which points to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off punt.
- This trade bought No at 89¢, implying they see the release by April 30 as less likely than the market price suggests.
$1,203 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Proven trader flips bearish
A very active cross-market trader with 1,082 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L is taking a fresh bearish position after previously exiting the opposite side, suggesting a deliberate thesis change on a major AI release market.
- This bettor has 1,082 resolved bets, a 66% win rate, and is up $56k lifetime
- They closed an earlier Yes position and opened a fresh No bet at 90¢, showing a clear view change
- The market just fell 32 points in a day, and this trader is still willing to pay 90¢ for No
$2,665 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Proven trader flips to No
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader reversed into No after previously closing a Yes position, suggesting an updated thesis rather than routine profit-taking.
- This bettor has over 1,000 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up about $56k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related markets — 255 events and 431 markets tracked — which points to a repeatable event-driven process
- This is a fresh No position after closing an earlier Yes bet, entered at 88¢ while the market had just dropped 27 points in a day
$1,263 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
3-wallet push into No
Three wallets dumped Yes across this Claude 5 market, driving a 20-point price drop on heavy volume, with one large profitable high-volume trader involved and sells translating cleanly into a No buy thesis.
- Three wallets all hit the same side for $10.7k total and pushed Yes down about 20 points.
- One of the wallets has 1,082 resolved bets, wins 66% of the time, and is up about $57.6k.
- They sold Yes as high as 46¢ while the market now sits at 24¢, which translates to buying No around 54¢ to 76¢.
$10,674 on No
77% win-rate event trader
A profitable serial event trader with a 77% win rate opened a fresh $2.6k Yes position at 30¢ in this Claude 5 market after previously closing the opposite side, signaling a deliberate thesis change.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $137k across 82 settled markets
- They trade deeply across related events — 126 markets over 82 events, with $43k deployed across 8 markets in this event
- This is a fresh Yes bet at 30¢ after closing an earlier No position, showing a clear change in view rather than routine profit-taking
$2,556 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%
77% win-rate event trader
Profitable serial event trader with a 77% win rate is making a fresh $2.8k Yes bet on this Claude 5 market after previously closing the opposite side.
- This bettor wins 77% of their resolved trades and is up about $137k lifetime
- They have traded 126 related markets across 82 events, which suggests a repeatable thesis-driven process
- This is a fresh $2.8k buy at 29¢ after closing an earlier No position, showing a clear change in view rather than routine profit-taking
$2,809 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%
77% winner flips bullish
A profitable 77% win-rate trader with broad cross-market experience is taking a fresh $2.9k Yes position at 32¢ after previously closing a No position, signaling a clear thesis reversal worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $53k across 78 settled markets
- They trade heavily across related markets — 125 markets in 82 events for over $1.2M total volume
- This is a fresh Yes bet at 32¢ after closing an earlier No position, showing a meaningful view change
$2,880 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%
Sharp cross-market thesis trader
A proven profitable serial cross-market trader with a 76% win rate opened a fresh $2.8k Yes position on Claude 5 after previously closing the opposite side, making this a notable thesis reversal worth tracking.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $52k across $1.29M invested
- They trade heavily across related markets — 123 markets in 82 events, including 8 in this event for $47k total
- This is a fresh Yes bet at 33¢ after closing an earlier No position, signaling a clear view change
$2,816 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 45%
Top Holders
- 0x2a0e...a6fc — Outcome 11966409, $17,915
- 0x5bfb...1b77 — Outcome 11966409, $17,083
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 11966409, $16,595 (45% win rate)
- 0x12d5...f0eb — Outcome 11966409, $11,584 (55% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 11966409, $10,000 (38% win rate)
- 0x03d5...019e — Outcome 11966409, $7,585
- 0xb19f...a912 — Outcome 11966409, $6,640
- 0x7a61...af24 — Outcome 11966409, $6,046
- 0x9cd7...9c85 — Outcome 11966409, $5,807
- 0xd23d...9d38 — Outcome 11966409, $5,215
Related Theses
Iran deal lands by April
Covers 4 related markets
Neither Fujimori nor Aliaga wins
Covers 2 related markets
