Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,261.
Categories: Middle East, Oil, Geopolitics, UAE, OPEC
Notable Trades
Repeat new wallet buyer
A very new wallet has already been flagged four times for sizable bets and is adding another $1.3k Yes position in a relatively small OPEC market, suggesting repeat conviction worth watching.
- This new wallet has been flagged 4 times already with $9.2k in notable bets, showing repeat conviction rather than a one-off punt
- They just bought Yes at 40¢ while the market now sits around 42¢, a meaningful size in a market with only $8.8k total volume
- The market is event-driven and news-sensitive, so a fresh wallet repeatedly betting here is worth tracking even without a long record
$1,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $9,504 (64% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Yes, $7,500 (39% win rate)
- 0x5203...d25c — Yes, $5,745 (100% win rate)
- 0x5207...686b — No, $3,433
- 0x4818...bf0b — Yes, $2,703 (52% win rate)
- 0xaa99...dbbf — No, $2,000 (61% win rate)
- 0xeca0...e8f8 — No, $1,000 (50% win rate)
- 0xa20a...d92d — No, $1,000
- 0xb454...9b90 — No, $834 (67% win rate)
- 0x585b...753f — Yes, $526
