Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
4 signals across 1 market · $12,654 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether any OPEC member besides the UAE officially announces a withdrawal before the end of 2026. Traders are pricing the geopolitical and oil-market fallout from the UAE exit, with PolySpotter tracking $8,474 in smart money activity across 3 signals, including NO buying from an 85% winner and a profitable serial macro bettor.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- 85% winner buys NO
A highly profitable 85% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought No, taking a sizable share of quiet 24h volume on a plausible geopolitical market.
$2,402Wallet win rate: 87%Score: 7.0 - Repeat new wallet buyer
A very new wallet has already been flagged four times for sizable bets and is adding another $1.3k Yes position in a relatively small OPEC market, suggesting repeat conviction worth watching.
$1,261Wallet win rate: 57%Score: 5.5 - Profitable serial macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a fresh $4.2k No position that represents 59% of the market’s 24h volume.
$4,180Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial macro bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $4.8k of No on a geopolitics market, a meaningful share of recent volume.
$4,811Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$8,991 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x31c518…ede4$2,402 · 1 market · 1 alert · 87% wins
- 0x5203c3…d25c$1,261 · 1 market · 1 alert · 57% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds that another country leaves OPEC in 2026?
The live Polymarket price reflects traders' current estimate of whether another OPEC member will officially announce an exit before the deadline. PolySpotter tracks the market alongside smart money activity so you can see not just the odds, but who is moving them.
What is the smart money doing on this OPEC exit market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show notable NO-side activity, including a buy from a trader with an 85% win rate and interest from a profitable serial macro bettor. There was also a repeat new-wallet buyer signal, suggesting continued positioning around the event.
What has to happen for this market to resolve Yes?
The market resolves Yes if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. If no such announcement occurs, it resolves No.
Why are traders watching this OPEC prediction market?
The UAE's announced withdrawal made OPEC membership a live geopolitical and oil-market question. Traders are watching whether pressure spreads to other members, which could affect oil policy, production coordination, and regional alliances.
When does the OPEC exit market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve after the 2026 deadline, based on whether an eligible official withdrawal announcement was made by another OPEC country before the cutoff.