Part of: US military action against Cuba by...?

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil will be announced or credibly reported by December 31, 2026. The supplied market data does not include current Yes/No odds; PolySpotter tracks $4,012 in smart-money activity across one signal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $532,870.

Categories: Cuba, Venezuela, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adds to No

A historically profitable serial cross-market trader added $3,104 to an existing large No position in a low-volume market, though the entry is already near 86¢.

  • This trader is up $489,634 across 688 resolved bets and has an 81% win rate.
  • They added $3,104 to an existing $20,000 No position, showing continued conviction.
  • The trade was more than twice the market’s 24-hour volume, but No was already priced at 86¢.

$3,104 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

89% winner adding NO

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position with a bet larger than the market's recent daily volume.

  • This bettor has won 89% of resolved trades and is up about $555k lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing No position, now buying at 74¢ after entering earlier around 71¢.
  • The $6.3k buy was larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, signaling conviction in a quiet market.

$4,012 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

89% winner adding NO

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position with a bet larger than the market's recent daily volume.

  • This bettor has won 89% of resolved trades and is up about $555k lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing No position, now buying at 74¢ after entering earlier around 71¢.
  • The $6.3k buy was larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, signaling conviction in a quiet market.

$6,289 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable macro sharp fading Yes

Sharp high-volume bettor with a 79% resolved win rate and nearly $3.9M profit is fading a US strike on Cuba by selling Yes.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 681 events and nearly $8.9M tracked volume.
  • Selling Yes at 39¢ is equivalent to buying No at 61¢, backing no US strike by year-end.

$1,617 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,664 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,780 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,292 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,255 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,570 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,083 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $73,687 (53% win rate)
  2. 0xb8e3...aaf2 — No, $67,266 (97% win rate)
  3. 0x80a0...5708 — Yes, $44,659 (40% win rate)
  4. 0x4337...8882 — No, $30,522 (75% win rate)
  5. 0x328d...f7a9 — No, $21,487 (90% win rate)
  6. 0xd3a6...fd55 — Yes, $20,614 (41% win rate)
  7. 0xcd71...d127 — No, $20,000 (81% win rate)
  8. 0x71e1...45f0 — Yes, $18,000 (59% win rate)
  9. 0xc550...272d — No, $15,704 (75% win rate)
  10. 0x524c...6b4f — No, $15,367 (27% win rate)

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US strike on Cuba by December 31?

US military action against Cuba by...?$532,870 tracked50 signalsCubaVenezuelaGeopolitics
Yes
7¢
No
93¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Price History — “No”
95¢
91¢
88¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-09-28 20:32 UTC

$3,104 on No at 86¢

86¢→93¢↑7¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-09-17 20:32 UTC

$4,012 on No at 74¢

74¢→93¢↑19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-07-13 12:27 UTC

$6,289 on No at 74¢

74¢→93¢↑19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-07-04 03:02 UTC

$1,617 on No at 61¢

61¢→93¢↑32¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-07-02 18:14 UTC

$2,664 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-07-02 10:46 UTC

$2,780 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-28 12:48 UTC

$2,292 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-27 13:39 UTC

$1,255 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-27 11:50 UTC

$1,570 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-27 11:33 UTC

$1,083 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-27 10:45 UTC

$2,213 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-21 01:39 UTC

$2,290 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-19 09:53 UTC

$1,300 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-07-15 18:53 UTC

$4,838 on Yes at 49¢

49¢→7¢↓42¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-14 08:19 UTC

$1,100 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-13 18:55 UTC

$1,003 on Yes at 45¢

45¢→7¢↓38¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-06 16:43 UTC

$1,135 on No at 60¢

60¢→93¢↑33¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-06 16:07 UTC

$1,115 on No at 60¢

60¢→93¢↑33¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-06 14:52 UTC

$1,280 on No at 59¢

59¢→93¢↑34¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-06 08:31 UTC

$1,979 on No at 56¢

56¢→93¢↑37¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-06 05:59 UTC

$1,010 on Yes at 46¢

46¢→7¢↓39¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-06 04:55 UTC

$1,480 on No at 56¢

56¢→93¢↑37¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-05 10:34 UTC

$1,178 on Yes at 46¢

46¢→7¢↓39¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-06-03 03:11 UTC

$1,466 on Yes at 47¢

47¢→7¢↓40¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-31 18:13 UTC

$1,912 on Yes at 53¢

53¢→7¢↓46¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-31 13:13 UTC

$1,189 on Yes at 54¢

54¢→7¢↓47¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-29 22:11 UTC

$3,200 on No at 48¢

48¢→93¢↑45¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-20 15:52 UTC

$2,056 on Yes at 43¢

43¢→7¢↓36¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-14 03:09 UTC

$4,158 on Yes at 41¢

41¢→7¢↓34¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-13 10:45 UTC

$6,083 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-13 10:36 UTC

$6,581 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-13 10:36 UTC

$2,450 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-13 10:36 UTC

$1,439 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 18:05 UTC

$8,469 on No at 63¢

63¢→93¢↑30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 18:05 UTC

$33,264 on No at 63¢

63¢→93¢↑30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:59 UTC

$33,999 on No at 63¢

63¢→93¢↑30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:59 UTC

$76,734 on No at 63¢

63¢→93¢↑30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:53 UTC

$91,224 on No at 63¢

63¢→93¢↑30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:53 UTC

$42,469 on No at 63¢

63¢→93¢↑30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:47 UTC

$33,999 on No at 63¢

63¢→93¢↑30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:47 UTC

$57,960 on No at 63¢

63¢→93¢↑30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:28 UTC

$3,922 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:28 UTC

$3,339 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:14 UTC

$8,020 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:08 UTC

$18,195 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:19 UTC

$1,764 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:01 UTC

$18,315 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 17:08 UTC

$3,465 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-13 10:36 UTC

$10,470 on No at 63¢

63¢→93¢↑30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

2026-05-12 16:55 UTC

$8,140 on Yes at 37¢

37¢→7¢↓30¢

Related Theses