Part of: US military action against Cuba by...?

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

This prediction market tracks whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil will be announced or credibly reported by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks the live Polymarket odds plus smart-money activity, including $2,292 in monitored flow and recent alerts showing both Yes and No wallet movement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $585,755.

Categories: Geopolitics, Venezuela, Cuba, Politics

Notable Trades

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,292 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,255 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,570 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,083 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,290 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

New profitable Yes cluster

A profitable 5-day-old repeat bettor and two other wallets bought $7.6k of Yes while the market is already moving sharply upward.

  • A 5-day-old repeat bettor with early profit is buying Yes again, already up $1,465 across flagged positions.
  • Three wallets bought the same side for $7.6k, with entries from 45¢ to 57¢.
  • Yes has jumped 13.5 points in the past day, and the first buyer is already well in profit.

$7,635 on Yes

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,003 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb8e3...aaf2 No, $68,721 (100% win rate)
  2. 0xb886...81b3 Yes, $59,548 (53% win rate)
  3. 0x80a0...5708 Yes, $37,169 (36% win rate)
  4. 0x4337...8882 No, $27,355 (75% win rate)
  5. 0xfb51...742d No, $21,471 (71% win rate)
  6. 0x60a9...5a71 No, $18,417 (49% win rate)
  7. 0x71e1...45f0 Yes, $18,000 (59% win rate)
  8. 0xfb47...0eca Yes, $17,423
  9. 0xcd71...d127 No, $16,381 (80% win rate)
  10. 0xe738...df65 No, $15,912 (64% win rate)

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US strike on Cuba by December 31?

181dUS military action against Cuba by...?$585,755 tracked50 signalsGeopoliticsVenezuelaCubaPolitics
Yes
39¢
No
62¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Price History — “No
66¢
60¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

3d ago

$2,292 on Yes at 45¢

45¢39¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

4d ago

$1,255 on Yes at 45¢

45¢39¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

4d ago

$1,570 on Yes at 45¢

45¢39¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

4d ago

$1,083 on Yes at 45¢

45¢39¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

4d ago

$2,213 on Yes at 45¢

45¢39¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

11d ago

$2,290 on Yes at 45¢

45¢39¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

12d ago

$1,300 on Yes at 45¢

45¢39¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

16d ago

$7,635 on Yes at 49¢

49¢39¢10¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

17d ago

$1,100 on Yes at 45¢

45¢39¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

18d ago

$1,003 on Yes at 45¢

45¢39¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

25d ago

$1,135 on No at 60¢

60¢62¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

25d ago

$1,115 on No at 60¢

60¢62¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

25d ago

$1,280 on No at 59¢

59¢62¢3¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

25d ago

$1,979 on No at 56¢

56¢62¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

26d ago

$1,010 on Yes at 46¢

46¢39¢7¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

26d ago

$1,480 on No at 56¢

56¢62¢6¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

26d ago

$1,178 on Yes at 46¢

46¢39¢7¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

29d ago

$1,466 on Yes at 47¢

47¢39¢8¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

31d ago

$1,912 on Yes at 53¢

53¢39¢14¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

31d ago

$1,189 on Yes at 54¢

54¢39¢15¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

33d ago

$3,200 on No at 48¢

48¢62¢14¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

42d ago

$2,056 on Yes at 43¢

43¢39¢4¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

49d ago

$4,158 on Yes at 41¢

41¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

49d ago

$6,083 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

49d ago

$6,581 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

49d ago

$1,439 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

49d ago

$2,450 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$33,264 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$8,469 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$33,999 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$76,734 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$91,224 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$42,469 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$33,999 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$57,960 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$3,339 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$3,922 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$8,020 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$18,195 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$1,764 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$18,315 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$3,465 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

49d ago

$10,470 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$8,140 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$52,145 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$7,030 on Yes at 37¢

37¢39¢2¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$2,646 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

50d ago

$5,292 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

61d ago

$1,527 on No at 63¢

63¢62¢1¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

74d ago

$1,914 on Yes at 43¢

43¢39¢4¢

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