Part of: US military action against Cuba by...?

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

This prediction market tracks whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil is announced or credibly reported by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $6,289 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market, including recent flow around both Yes and No positions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $545,076.

Categories: Geopolitics, Venezuela, Cuba

Notable Trades

89% winner adding NO

Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position with a bet larger than the market's recent daily volume.

  • This bettor has won 89% of resolved trades and is up about $555k lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing No position, now buying at 74¢ after entering earlier around 71¢.
  • The $6.3k buy was larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, signaling conviction in a quiet market.

$6,289 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Profitable macro sharp fading Yes

Sharp high-volume bettor with a 79% resolved win rate and nearly $3.9M profit is fading a US strike on Cuba by selling Yes.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 681 events and nearly $8.9M tracked volume.
  • Selling Yes at 39¢ is equivalent to buying No at 61¢, backing no US strike by year-end.

$1,617 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,664 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,780 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,292 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,255 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,570 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$1,083 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

75% winner exits No

Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
  • Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
  • This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.

$2,290 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb886...81b3 Yes, $73,687 (53% win rate)
  2. 0xb8e3...aaf2 No, $68,721 (95% win rate)
  3. 0x80a0...5708 Yes, $44,659 (40% win rate)
  4. 0xfb51...742d No, $28,712 (71% win rate)
  5. 0x4337...8882 No, $27,355 (74% win rate)
  6. 0xfb47...0eca Yes, $21,554
  7. 0x328d...f7a9 No, $21,487 (90% win rate)
  8. 0x71e1...45f0 Yes, $18,000 (59% win rate)
  9. 0xcd71...d127 No, $16,381 (81% win rate)
  10. 0x524c...6b4f No, $15,367 (27% win rate)

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US strike on Cuba by December 31?

128dUS military action against Cuba by...?$545,076 tracked50 signalsGeopoliticsVenezuelaCuba
Yes
19¢
No
82¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Price History — “No
85¢
83¢
80¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

41d ago

$6,289 on No at 74¢

74¢82¢8¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

51d ago

$1,617 on No at 61¢

61¢82¢21¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

52d ago

$2,664 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

52d ago

$2,780 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

56d ago

$2,292 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

57d ago

$1,255 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

57d ago

$1,570 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

57d ago

$1,083 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

57d ago

$2,213 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

64d ago

$2,290 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

65d ago

$1,300 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

39d ago

$4,838 on Yes at 49¢

49¢19¢30¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

70d ago

$1,100 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

71d ago

$1,003 on Yes at 45¢

45¢19¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

78d ago

$1,135 on No at 60¢

60¢82¢22¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

78d ago

$1,115 on No at 60¢

60¢82¢22¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

78d ago

$1,280 on No at 59¢

59¢82¢23¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

78d ago

$1,979 on No at 56¢

56¢82¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

79d ago

$1,010 on Yes at 46¢

46¢19¢27¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

79d ago

$1,480 on No at 56¢

56¢82¢26¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

79d ago

$1,178 on Yes at 46¢

46¢19¢27¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

82d ago

$1,466 on Yes at 47¢

47¢19¢28¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

84d ago

$1,912 on Yes at 53¢

53¢19¢34¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

84d ago

$1,189 on Yes at 54¢

54¢19¢35¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

86d ago

$3,200 on No at 48¢

48¢82¢34¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

95d ago

$2,056 on Yes at 43¢

43¢19¢24¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

102d ago

$4,158 on Yes at 41¢

41¢19¢22¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

102d ago

$6,083 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

102d ago

$6,581 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

102d ago

$2,450 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

102d ago

$1,439 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$33,264 on No at 63¢

63¢82¢19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$8,469 on No at 63¢

63¢82¢19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$33,999 on No at 63¢

63¢82¢19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$76,734 on No at 63¢

63¢82¢19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$42,469 on No at 63¢

63¢82¢19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$91,224 on No at 63¢

63¢82¢19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$33,999 on No at 63¢

63¢82¢19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$57,960 on No at 63¢

63¢82¢19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$3,339 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$3,922 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$8,020 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$18,195 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$1,764 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$18,315 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$3,465 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

102d ago

$10,470 on No at 63¢

63¢82¢19¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$8,140 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

103d ago

$7,030 on Yes at 37¢

37¢19¢18¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

17d ago

$12,293 on No at 75¢

75¢82¢7¢

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