Part of: US military action against Cuba by...?
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
This prediction market tracks whether a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil is announced or credibly reported by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $6,289 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market, including recent flow around both Yes and No positions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $545,076.
Categories: Geopolitics, Venezuela, Cuba
Notable Trades
89% winner adding NO
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position with a bet larger than the market's recent daily volume.
- This bettor has won 89% of resolved trades and is up about $555k lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing No position, now buying at 74¢ after entering earlier around 71¢.
- The $6.3k buy was larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, signaling conviction in a quiet market.
$6,289 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable macro sharp fading Yes
Sharp high-volume bettor with a 79% resolved win rate and nearly $3.9M profit is fading a US strike on Cuba by selling Yes.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $3.9M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 681 events and nearly $8.9M tracked volume.
- Selling Yes at 39¢ is equivalent to buying No at 61¢, backing no US strike by year-end.
$1,617 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$2,664 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$2,780 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$2,292 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$1,255 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$1,570 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$1,083 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$2,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
75% winner exits No
Proven profitable wallet with a 75% win record is selling No, effectively leaning Yes, though this appears to be an exit from a prior No position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $409k lifetime.
- Selling No is equivalent to taking the Yes side around 45¢.
- This looks like closing an older No position, so the signal is weaker than a fresh large buy.
$2,290 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0xb886...81b3 — Yes, $73,687 (53% win rate)
- 0xb8e3...aaf2 — No, $68,721 (95% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Yes, $44,659 (40% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — No, $28,712 (71% win rate)
- 0x4337...8882 — No, $27,355 (74% win rate)
- 0xfb47...0eca — Yes, $21,554
- 0x328d...f7a9 — No, $21,487 (90% win rate)
- 0x71e1...45f0 — Yes, $18,000 (59% win rate)
- 0xcd71...d127 — No, $16,381 (81% win rate)
- 0x524c...6b4f — No, $15,367 (27% win rate)
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