Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

This Polymarket asks whether Reza Pahlavi will physically enter Iran by June 30, 2026. Traders use it to price the chances of a high-profile return tied to Iranian politics, regime speculation, and broader Middle East geopolitics. The market resolves on June 30, 2026, and currently has limited but trackable smart money activity with $9,000 tracked across 1 signal.

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $9,000.

Categories: Israel, World, Iran, Middle East, Geopolitics, shah, Reza Pahlavi, Iran Regime

Notable Trades

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

A repeat new wallet from a 12-wallet funded cluster put $9,000 into NO, suggesting coordinated conviction across linked accounts rather than a routine single-wallet trade.

  • 12 linked wallets share the same funder, a strong sign one actor is spreading a thesis across multiple accounts.
  • This wallet is only 15 days old but has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts with $129,000 flagged in total.
  • They bought NO at 88¢, showing a high-conviction view that Pahlavi will not enter Iran by June 30.

$9,000 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0x0a85...fe9d Yes, $212,924 (26% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 No, $196,915 (70% win rate)
  3. 0xa3ff...540e No, $108,593 (100% win rate)
  4. 0x2ec6...dce8 Yes, $65,348
  5. 0xde7b...5f4b No, $64,075 (88% win rate)
  6. 0xe42b...8444 Yes, $60,280 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x466a...c444 Yes, $56,123
  8. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $52,893 (64% win rate)
  9. 0x7f4e...2e3e Yes, $45,929 (17% win rate)
  10. 0x5ca7...8195 Yes, $43,850 (43% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

71d$9,000 tracked1 signalIsraelWorldIranMiddle EastGeopoliticsshahReza PahlaviIran Regime
Yes
5¢
No
96¢

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
97¢
94¢
91¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

26d ago

$9,000 on No at 88¢

88¢96¢8¢

Related Theses

Reza Pahlavi Iran Entry Odds on Polymarket | PolySpotter