Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
9 signals across 2 markets · $46,832 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Reza Pahlavi will physically enter Iranian territory by the market deadlines, with related markets covering different resolution dates. PolySpotter is tracking $34,837 in smart money activity across the event, including signals from a profitable event-thesis bettor, a 75% win-rate event specialist, and a 92% serial cross-market bettor.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
A repeat new wallet from a 12-wallet funded cluster put $9,000 into NO, suggesting coordinated conviction across linked accounts rather than a routine single-wallet trade.
$9,000Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 13.5 - Profitable event-thesis bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a long profitable history and 75% win rate is buying No at 83¢ in a three-market Iran thesis, suggesting a coordinated event view worth tracking.
$2,253Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 9.0 - 75% win-rate event specialist
A high-volume cross-market trader with a 75% win rate across 1,005 resolved bets is adding a consistent thesis in this event by buying No at 85¢.
$1,700Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 9.0 - Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
A fresh wallet funded alongside 4 others just placed a $10k bet on No, part of a 5-wallet linked cluster with $151.6k total behind the same thesis.
$10,000Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 8.8 - 92% serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced cross-market bettor with a 92% resolved win rate is buying No across this Reza Pahlavi event, though the position is moderate-sized and the market is long-dated.
$1,963Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 7.0 - Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
A 22-day-old wallet has repeatedly placed very large bets across this event and just made a fresh nearly $10k directional bet here, suggesting sustained conviction rather than routine trading.
$9,922Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 5.5 - Profitable cross-market bettor
A modestly profitable, high-volume wallet is adding a $5k No position as part of a much larger $120k cross-market thesis on the same event.
$5,000Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ with a $5.3k position on a political event market.
$5,255Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 4.0 - Profitable serial macro bettor
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved-bet history is effectively buying Yes at 13¢ on a geopolitically sensitive market.
$1,740Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x842ac0…92f5$28,922 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$5,255 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0xbe8990…b88c$5,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 52% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$3,953 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 67% wins
- 0x0b652d…293e$1,963 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
- 0x08458f…6b6f$1,740 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds that Reza Pahlavi enters Iran?
The event’s odds reflect live market pricing across the related deadline markets, including whether Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by December 31 and by June 30. PolySpotter tracks these markets together so you can see how expectations shift across timelines.
What does this Reza Pahlavi prediction market resolve on?
The market resolves to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi physically enters the terrestrial territory of Iran during the specified market timeframe. Entering Iranian airspace or maritime territory alone does not count.
Is smart money betting on this event?
Yes. PolySpotter has tracked $34,837 in smart money activity across this event, with 6 signals including a profitable event-thesis bettor, a 75% win-rate event specialist, and a 92% serial cross-market bettor.
Why are there multiple markets for this event?
The event hub includes child markets with different deadlines, letting traders price the probability of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by separate dates rather than only one final outcome.
When does the Reza Pahlavi Iran visit market resolve?
The event includes markets tied to specific deadlines, including June 30, 2026. Each child market resolves according to its own deadline and the stated condition that he physically enters Iran.