What is the AI FrontierMath 90% before 2027 prediction market about?

This market predicts whether a state-of-the-art AI model will score 90% or higher on the FrontierMath Exam before the end of 2026. If that happens by the deadline, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

When does this FrontierMath AI market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether the benchmark result occurs by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

What source determines whether the market resolves Yes?

The primary resolution source is EpochAI. If needed, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine whether a qualifying AI model achieved a 90% or greater FrontierMath score.

What does smart money activity show for this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $4,205 in smart money exposure across 2 signals. Recent alerts indicate profitable traders have been fading a spike, meaning some experienced traders may be betting against a recent move in market odds.

Why is a 90% FrontierMath score significant for AI progress?

FrontierMath is designed to test advanced mathematical reasoning. A 90% score by a state-of-the-art AI model would suggest a major improvement in AI capability on difficult math problems.

Part of: AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

This prediction market asks whether a state-of-the-art AI model will achieve a score of at least 90% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31, 2026. It resolves based primarily on EpochAI information, with credible reporting used if needed. PolySpotter is tracking $4,205 in smart money activity across 2 signals, with recent alerts showing profitable traders fading a spike.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,373.

Categories: AI, Big Tech, Business, Tech

Notable Trades

Profitable trader fading spike

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 68% of 114 resolved bets and is up about $105k lifetime.
They are effectively buying No at 10¢ after Yes jumped about 66 percentage points in a day.
The trade is about one-quarter of the market’s 24h volume, suggesting meaningful conviction in a quiet market.

$2,379 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable trader fading spike

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 68% of 114 resolved bets and is up about $105k lifetime.
They are effectively buying No at 10¢ after Yes jumped about 66 percentage points in a day.
The trade is about one-quarter of the market’s 24h volume, suggesting meaningful conviction in a quiet market.

$1,826 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable trader fading spike

Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 68% of 114 resolved bets and is up about $105k lifetime.
They are effectively buying No at 10¢ after Yes jumped about 66 percentage points in a day.
The trade is about one-quarter of the market’s 24h volume, suggesting meaningful conviction in a quiet market.

$1,168 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%