AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
7 signals across 1 market · $12,906 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether a state-of-the-art AI model will score at least 90% on EpochAI’s FrontierMath Benchmark by the end of 2026. Traders are pricing the Yes/No outcome, with PolySpotter monitoring smart money activity, including a recent signal from a profitable trader fading a price spike.
Markets (1)
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable new wallet fading Yes
A profitable repeat new wallet is taking a contrarian No position on a thin, wide-spread AI benchmark market that has already been drifting down.
$2,222Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 5.0 - Profitable trader fading spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.
$1,168Wallet win rate: 37%Score: 4.0 - Profitable trader fading spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.
$2,163Wallet win rate: 37%Score: 4.0 - Profitable trader fading spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.
$1,067Wallet win rate: 37%Score: 4.0 - Profitable trader fading spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.
$2,080Wallet win rate: 37%Score: 4.0 - Profitable trader fading spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.
$1,826Wallet win rate: 37%Score: 4.0 - Profitable trader fading spike
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian No position after a sharp Yes price spike in a relatively thin market.
$2,379Wallet win rate: 37%Score: 1.5
Top wallets in this event
- 0x154335…baaf$10,683 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 37% wins
- 0xcadcaa…54ca$2,222 · 1 market · 1 alert · 86% wins
FAQs
What are the odds an AI model scores 90% on FrontierMath before 2027?
The live Polymarket odds reflect how traders currently price the chance that a SOTA AI model reaches 90% or higher on the FrontierMath Benchmark by the resolution deadline.
What does smart money say about this FrontierMath AI market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,168 in smart money activity on this event. The latest alert noted a profitable trader fading a spike, suggesting at least one sharp participant was skeptical of a recent move higher.
What outcomes are being traded in this event?
This event has a Yes/No market: Yes if a SOTA AI model scores 90% or more on FrontierMath before 2027, and No if that threshold is not met by the deadline.
When does the FrontierMath 90% AI market resolve?
The market is scheduled to resolve based on results available by December 31, 2026, with EpochAI listed as the primary resolution source and credible reporting as a fallback.