Part of: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
This Polymarket asks whether the official CME settlement price for active-month Crude Oil (CL) futures will reach $115 or higher on any trading day before the final trading day of June 2026. PolySpotter tracks $8,400 in smart money activity on this market, with 1 smart money signal tied to oil and macro-focused bettors. The market resolves on June 30, 2026, based on CME settlement data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
19 smart money signals detected, totaling $68,766.
Categories: Commodities, NYMEX Crude Oil Futures, Oil
Notable Trades
88% winner oil thesis
A highly profitable 88% win-rate wallet is making a sizable No bet as part of a larger cross-market crude oil thesis.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $709k lifetime.
- They have placed $62k across 5 related markets, showing a broader thesis on crude oil levels.
- This $8.4k buy backs No at 84¢, implying strong confidence oil stays below $115 by end of June.
$8,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
91% winner on oil No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 91% long-run win rate is buying No as part of a cross-market crude oil thesis.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $421K lifetime.
- They put $3.6K on No, adding to a $16.4K cross-market crude oil thesis.
- Buying No at 83¢ implies they see the $115 oil spike as unlikely by end of June.
$3,560 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Elite cross-market oil bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate is taking a Yes position and has built a broad cross-market thesis across related crude oil markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $531,904 lifetime.
- They have placed $40,319 across 9 related markets, suggesting a broad crude oil thesis.
- Selling No at 85¢ equals buying Yes at 15¢, a high-upside bet that oil reaches $115 by June 2026.
$3,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% winner oil thesis
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $532k profit is adding a cross-market oil thesis by buying No on CL hitting $115 by June 2026.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $532k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.3M across 50 events and the same 82% win rate.
- They have built a $36k position across 9 related markets, suggesting a broader crude-oil thesis.
$2,565 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market oil bettor
A profitable 75% lifetime wallet is making a cross-market crude oil thesis by buying No on a $115 CL spike, despite only a moderate signal score.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 267 bets and is up $38k lifetime.
- They have put $6.5k across 3 related crude oil markets, suggesting a broader oil-price thesis.
- Buying No at 84¢ backs the view that crude will not reach $115 by end of June.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
82% winner macro bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate is adding to a broad cross-market thesis against crude oil hitting $115 by June 2026.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $531,787 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.27M deployed across 50 events.
- This is part of a broader 7-market crude oil thesis totaling $31,241.
$1,678 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable oil-thesis whale
A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broad crude-oil bearish thesis across 12 related markets with $138k positioned, including a fresh $5.6k No buy here.
- This wallet is up $271k lifetime and is placing a broader $138k thesis across 12 related crude-oil markets.
- The trade buys No at 82¢, betting crude will not settle at or above $115 by end of June 2026.
- Market momentum supports the direction, with Yes odds down 30% over the past week.
$5,641 on No | Wallet win rate: 43%
Profitable oil ladder bettor
Profitable wallet is expressing a large cross-market oil thesis, buying $9.6K of No while positioning across 12 related markets.
- This bettor is up $271K lifetime and has placed $136K across 12 related oil markets.
- They bought $9.6K of No at 80¢, betting crude stays below $115 through June 2026.
- The market is already moving their way, with Yes odds down about 30 points this week.
$9,619 on No | Wallet win rate: 43%
Profitable oil thesis trader
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a broad cross-market crude-oil thesis with a fresh $4.3K No buy after prior Yes exposure.
- This wallet is up $228K lifetime and has traded over $119K across 10 related crude-oil markets.
- The bettor bought No at 73¢ after closing a prior Yes position, suggesting a shift toward lower oil-spike odds.
- This is part of a broader event-level position, not a one-off bet.
$4,314 on No | Wallet win rate: 43%
Profitable cross-market oil bettor
Experienced profitable wallet is building a broad crude-oil thesis across 10 related markets, buying Yes exposure here after a sharp weekly price drop.
- This bettor is up $115k across 1,086 resolved trades, with a long history on Polymarket.
- They have positioned across 10 related crude-oil markets with about $174k in total exposure.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 26¢ after the market fell 31% this week.
$1,923 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%
Top Holders
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — Yes, $76,142 (78% win rate)
- 0xe734...4f0c — No, $39,219 (43% win rate)
- 0x4047...7293 — No, $20,674 (55% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — No, $13,385 (88% win rate)
- 0x80a0...5708 — Yes, $11,801 (36% win rate)
- 0xc390...2a1f — Yes, $10,356
- 0x72a0...c059 — No, $10,078 (51% win rate)
- 0xe1e1...d250 — No, $9,752
- 0x2942...59ab — Yes, $8,102 (45% win rate)
- 0x7daf...28f8 — Yes, $7,978 (88% win rate)
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