Part of: Starmer out by...?
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
24 smart money signals detected, totaling $76,918.
Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World
Notable Trades
Cross-market momentum buyer
High composite alert driven by a large cross-market political thesis and a 50x volume spike, despite this specific fill being small and near 90¢.
- This bettor has built a much larger $68k–$75k position across related markets, not just this $1.3k buy.
- Market activity is surging, with volume running 50x above its historical average.
- Yes has moved up 28 points in a day, and this buy at 90¢ follows that strong momentum.
$1,287 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 38%
Profitable wallet riding breakout
A profitable wallet is buying Yes amid a major price breakout and broader cross-market positioning on Starmer exit markets.
- This bettor has won 15 of 22 resolved bets and is up about $2K lifetime.
- They have put about $19K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Starmer-out thesis.
- Yes odds jumped over 40 points in a day, and this buy adds to strong momentum.
$3,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought $7.7k of Yes amid a 67.6x volume spike and a 14-point daily price move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 928 resolved bets, 69% winners, and about $935k in profit.
- They bought $7.7k of Yes after the market jumped 14 points in a day.
- Volume is 67.6x above its historical average, suggesting broader momentum behind the move.
$4,149 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
92% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 92% resolved win rate is buying Yes after major same-event positioning and a 19.5-point daily move.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up about $29.7k lifetime.
- They have traded 47 markets across 32 related events, with $1.17M total invested.
- This market is already moving hard, up 19.5 points today, and the wallet is still buying Yes at 80¢.
$1,892 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
90% winner buying contrarian No
Sharp wallet with a 90% historical win rate is taking a contrarian No position on a liquid UK politics market.
- This bettor has won 90% of resolved trades, going 43-for-48 historically.
- They are buying No at 33¢ while the market has moved toward Yes, taking the contrarian side.
- Entry at 33¢ implies a potential 3x payout if Starmer stays through the deadline.
$2,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
New whale joins Yes surge
High-scoring political alert with a brand-new wallet buying Yes alongside 6-wallet one-sided flow, a 33.7x volume spike, and a 47.5-point daily price move.
- A brand-new wallet bought $3,000 of Yes at 61¢ and the market has already moved to 71¢.
- Six wallets are all betting Yes, totaling over $10,000 in same-direction flow.
- Volume is 33.7x above normal and Yes is up 47.5 points in one day.
$1,978 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 46%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought $7.7k of Yes amid a 67.6x volume spike and a 14-point daily price move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 928 resolved bets, 69% winners, and about $935k in profit.
- They bought $7.7k of Yes after the market jumped 14 points in a day.
- Volume is 67.6x above its historical average, suggesting broader momentum behind the move.
$7,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable political sharp buying Yes
Surface because a proven profitable wallet with a 76% win rate is buying Yes into strong Starmer-exit momentum.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up about $60.5K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 66¢ after the market jumped 39 points in a day.
- The wallet has also positioned across another related market, suggesting a broader Starmer-exit thesis.
$1,116 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
71% serial cross-market bettor
A profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 71% record is effectively buying Yes across related Starmer markets, though the latest trade is modest in size.
- This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up $26,794 lifetime.
- They have traded 82 markets across 61 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Selling No at 27¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 73¢ on Starmer leaving by the deadline.
$1,205 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable wallet riding breakout
A profitable wallet is buying Yes amid a major price breakout and broader cross-market positioning on Starmer exit markets.
- This bettor has won 15 of 22 resolved bets and is up about $2K lifetime.
- They have put about $19K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Starmer-out thesis.
- Yes odds jumped over 40 points in a day, and this buy adds to strong momentum.
$1,212 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0x9d84...1344 — Outcome 66281865, $52,727 (40% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 66281865, $28,021 (72% win rate)
- 0xc9d5...d1bb — Outcome 66281865, $20,000
- 0x1dd1...a156 — Outcome 66281865, $13,483 (53% win rate)
- 0x5e9f...1775 — Outcome 66281865, $12,936
- 0x3bef...d6e2 — Outcome 66281865, $12,255 (100% win rate)
- 0x8a64...1eaa — Outcome 66281865, $10,880
- 0x097c...7c8d — Outcome 66281865, $10,500
- 0x7613...8f9a — Outcome 66281865, $9,580
- 0x7836...9a32 — Outcome 66281865, $9,000
Related Theses
Iran leadership changes by December
Covers 6 related markets
Peace deal lands mid-June
Covers 6 related markets
Starmer exits before mid-2026
Covers 2 related markets
Starmer stays through June
Covers 4 related markets
