Part of: Spain vs. Argentina - More Markets

Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance

18 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,078,462.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

New whale scaling into Spain

A new wallet is scaling into a large Spain position while 10 wallets collectively buy Spain during a major volume spike.

This wallet has committed $1.47M to Spain, including $370,313 in fresh buys, despite being only 13 hours old.
Ten wallets are buying Spain together with $406,405 in concentrated flow.
Market volume is running 15.2x above its historical average, reinforcing the unusually strong directional interest.

$370,313 on Spain

New whale joins five-wallet Spain cluster

A brand-new wallet is scaling a $218,300 Spain position alongside four other Spain buyers amid a major volume surge, signaling unusually strong coordinated conviction despite no proven track record.

Five wallets are buying Spain together, committing about $483,900 to the same outcome.
This 12-hour-old wallet has repeated nine times and now has roughly $370,000 invested in Spain.
Trading volume is running 17.7 times above its historical average, although the wallet has no resolved track record yet.

$218,300 on Spain

New whale scaling into Argentina

A three-day-old repeat whale is scaling an already massive Argentina position during an extreme volume spike, though the wallet's track record is too limited to confirm a durable edge.

This three-day-old wallet bought another $299,000 of Argentina at 41¢, adding to a $1.63 million position.
The market saw a 116x historical volume spike, suggesting unusually strong attention and directional conviction.
The wallet is 1-0 with $316,250 in reported profit, but the resolved sample is too small to rely on alone.

$299,015 on Argentina | Wallet win rate: 100%

93% winner scaling into Argentina

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 93% win rate is adding to an Argentina position at 41¢ despite Spain being favored.

This bettor has won 93% of 45 resolved trades and earned $116,305 in profit.
They are adding $2,200 to an existing Argentina position at 41¢, showing increased conviction.
The entry price implies Argentina is viewed as meaningfully undervalued against the 41% market probability.

$2,200 on Argentina | Wallet win rate: 94%

9-wallet underdog push

Worth surfacing because 9 wallets are collectively taking the Argentina side for $145k near match day, though this specific wallet has limited track record and appears to be closing Spain exposure.

9 wallets are all taking the same side, with $145k flowing toward Argentina.
This trade converts to buying Argentina at 41¢, implying about 2.4x payout if they advance.
The market is highly liquid, so the signal is more about coordinated conviction than one wallet’s track record.

$2,955 on Argentina | Wallet win rate: 33%

Sharp bettor joins Spain cluster

A highly profitable bettor with a 93% win rate sold Argentina at 41¢, equivalent to buying Spain at 59¢ alongside two other Spain bettors.

This bettor has won 93% of 15 resolved trades and is up $16,323 lifetime.
Selling Argentina at 41¢ is equivalent to buying Spain at 59¢, matching a three-wallet, $9,981 Spain cluster.
The position adds meaningful conviction despite Spain already trading at 59% in a highly liquid market.

$4,886 on Spain | Wallet win rate: 93%

Sharp bettor scaling into Argentina

A proven 84% win-rate bettor with substantial positive edge is adding to an existing Argentina position at 41¢.

This bettor wins 84% of trades and is up $59,245 across 44 resolved positions.
They are adding $10,000 to Argentina at 41¢ after already investing $24,540 in the same outcome.
The bettor has traded across 27 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process rather than a one-off wager.

$10,000 on Argentina | Wallet win rate: 84%

New whale scaling into Spain

A repeat two-day-old wallet has accumulated roughly $280,000 on Spain while the market experiences a nearly 40x volume spike, though it lacks a proven track record.

A wallet less than three days old bought $166,569 of Spain in three same-price trades.
The wallet already has about $280,000 invested in Spain, signaling strong one-sided conviction.
Trading volume spiked 39.9x its historical average, although the wallet has no resolved positions to verify an edge.

$166,570 on Spain

9-wallet underdog push

Surfacing due to coordinated one-sided flow and a large add to an existing Argentina position, though the wallet’s headline win rate is less impressive because it mostly wins on heavy favorites.

Nine wallets bought the same side, totaling $145k in recent flow.
This wallet added $82k at 41¢ and already has $208k on the same outcome.
The bettor is active across 137 events, but their high win rate mostly comes from 97¢ favorites.

$40,500 on Argentina | Wallet win rate: 86%

9-wallet underdog push

Surfacing due to coordinated one-sided flow and a large add to an existing Argentina position, though the wallet’s headline win rate is less impressive because it mostly wins on heavy favorites.

Nine wallets bought the same side, totaling $145k in recent flow.
This wallet added $82k at 41¢ and already has $208k on the same outcome.
The bettor is active across 137 events, but their high win rate mostly comes from 97¢ favorites.

$25,920 on Argentina | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

0x669d...c044 — Outcome 59470269, $3,062,488 (100% win rate)
0x3fe2...56e9 — Outcome 59470269, $434,582 (56% win rate)
0xe221...06f6 — Outcome 59470269, $307,777 (97% win rate)
0x2092...b6d8 — Outcome 59470269, $235,872 (57% win rate)
0x8e0b...9e5c — Outcome 59470269, $232,425
0x4337...8882 — Outcome 59470269, $219,477 (74% win rate)
0x8ca5...fd56 — Outcome 59470269, $214,638 (29% win rate)
0x7b21...a178 — Outcome 59470269, $200,000 (100% win rate)
0x8b9a...5f69 — Outcome 59470269, $180,500
0xe558...dcd2 — Outcome 59470269, $159,999 (78% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Argentina won’t win; others favored

Covers 7 related markets

France or Argentina win, not Spain

Covers 3 related markets

Thunder cover low-scoring game

Covers 3 related markets

Spurs win close defensive game

Covers 3 related markets

Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance

ResolvedSpain vs. Argentina - More Markets$3,078,462 tracked18 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Argentina, scheduled for July 19 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Spain" if Spain is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This market will resolve to "Argentina" if Argentina is the team that officially advances from this match to the next round of the FIFA World Cup, or is crowned winner of the competition if this match is the final. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the game is canceled entirely and no team advances from this match, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “Spain”