Part of: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
This Polymarket market asks whether the active-month WTI Crude Oil futures contract will print any 1-minute candle with a final low price at or above $85 during May 2026. It resolves after the May trading window, with final resolution scheduled for June 1, 2026, using Pyth-published prices without rounding. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,049 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal on this oil price outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract’s last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract’s last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,344.
Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Pyth Finance, Commodities, Oil
Notable Trades
Profitable oil ladder bettor
A profitable wallet is building a broader cross-market WTI thesis, with $57k placed across 9 related oil markets and a fresh No buy after previously trading this market heavily.
- This bettor is up about $54k lifetime and has placed $57k across 9 related WTI markets.
- They are re-entering No after previously investing $32.8k on this same market, suggesting continued conviction.
- The 52¢ entry implies they think the market is underpricing the chance WTI stays below this level in May.
$1,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 47%
Profitable oil trader across 7 markets
A profitable wallet built a $47k cross-market oil thesis and this leg has already moved sharply from 64¢ to 86¢.
- This bettor is up $65k lifetime and has placed $47k across 7 related oil markets.
- They bought Yes at 64¢ before this market jumped to 86¢ in the last day.
- The trade fits a broader oil-price thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$1,950 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 47%
Profitable oil ladder bettor
Profitable wallet is re-entering a Yes position while carrying a large cross-market WTI thesis across 11 related markets, though the standalone trade is modest.
- This bettor is up about $261k lifetime and has placed $292k across 11 related WTI markets.
- They are buying Yes at 41¢ after the market fell 7.5% in a day, suggesting a dip-buying oil thesis.
- This is a fresh re-entry after previously closing a larger Yes position on the same market.
$4,497 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 42%
Profitable oil ladder bettor
Worth surfacing as a broad cross-market oil thesis from a profitable high-volume wallet, though the individual trade is modest.
- This wallet has put $143.7k across 9 related oil markets, showing a broad directional thesis.
- The bettor is up $266k lifetime despite a 41% hit rate, suggesting they size winners well.
- This trade is effectively betting No at 50¢, implying they think the market is overpricing an $85 WTI print.
$2,059 on No | Wallet win rate: 42%
Profitable oil ladder bettor
Profitable macro wallet is building a $141k cross-market oil thesis, with this $2.7k Yes buy meaningful relative to the market's $8.3k daily volume.
- This wallet is up $268k lifetime and is building a broader $141k oil position across 6 related markets.
- The $2.7k buy is meaningful for a quiet market with only $8.3k traded in the past day.
- Entry at 43¢ implies the bettor sees WTI hitting the $85 low threshold as underpriced.
$2,664 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 42%
Profitable oil thesis across 6 markets
Profitable wallet is building a broader WTI oil thesis across 6 related markets, with this Yes buy occurring in a thin, wide-spread market.
- This wallet is up $266k lifetime and is positioning across 6 related WTI markets.
- It has put $65k into the same oil event, suggesting a broader directional thesis.
- This Yes was bought at 45¢ in a thin market with a 20¢ spread, now around 50¢.
$1,125 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 42%
Top Holders
- 0xe734...4f0c — Yes, $37,203 (42% win rate)
- 0x72a0...c059 — Yes, $28,777 (47% win rate)
- 0x61e7...6e8b — No, $13,617 (55% win rate)
- 0x4bbe...2cf3 — No, $12,761 (78% win rate)
- 0xa5b5...0538 — Yes, $10,298
- 0x9e92...6929 — No, $10,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x6e4b...3c6d — Yes, $8,006 (49% win rate)
- 0xacbc...7cc3 — No, $7,211 (22% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — No, $6,173 (37% win rate)
- 0x5f45...a77a — No, $4,847 (62% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI stays rangebound in May
Covers 9 related markets
WTI crashes then spikes higher
Covers 12 related markets
Extreme crude volatility ahead
Covers 8 related markets
