Part of: Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,847.

Categories: Claude, Big Tech, anthropic, Claude Mythos, AI, Tech, Trump

Notable Trades

83% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with an 83% resolved-bet record and positive lifetime P&L is buying No while also positioning across a related market.

  • This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $3.4K lifetime.
  • They bought $1.5K of No at 82¢, showing confidence that restoration will not happen by the deadline.
  • The wallet has $2.7K positioned across 2 related markets in the same event.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

1-day wallet buying Yes

A 1-day-old repeat large bettor is taking a concentrated Yes position near the market deadline, though the wallet has no resolved track record yet.

  • This brand-new wallet has already placed $6.7k in flagged bets across 7 positions.
  • Both trades point to Yes, including buying Yes and selling No on the same market.
  • The bet is coming just days before resolution, when news or access changes could move the market quickly.

$2,667 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

76% winner buying No

A profitable 76% winner is adding a cross-market No position on a plausible AI-policy resolution market after a sharp move toward No.

  • This bettor has won 76% of resolved trades, going 32 wins and 10 losses.
  • They have put $8.5K across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on this event.
  • The market has moved 18 points toward No in the past day, and this trade follows that momentum at 84¢.

$1,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 54475623, $39,916 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x876b...1703 Outcome 54475623, $4,995 (83% win rate)
  3. 0xb21b...0deb Outcome 54475623, $2,596
  4. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 54475623, $2,202 (86% win rate)
  5. 0xdc51...6566 Outcome 66277136, $2,095
  6. 0x126e...c360 Outcome 54475623, $2,000
  7. 0xaa99...dbbf Outcome 54475623, $2,000 (62% win rate)
  8. 0x8f07...e5ae Outcome 66277136, $1,678
  9. 0x035b...c6dd Outcome 54475623, $1,000
  10. 0x1dd1...a156 Outcome 54475623, $950 (53% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by June end

Covers 3 related markets

Claude Fable returns by July

Covers 3 related markets

Claude Fable 5 remains unavailable

Covers 2 related markets

Araghchi signs, Ghalibaf doesn't

Covers 2 related markets

Trump rejects enrichment, accepts fees

Covers 2 related markets

US-Iran signing falls through

Covers 2 related markets

GPT-5.6 not before June 22

Covers 2 related markets

Hormuz shipping remains robust

Covers 2 related markets

Hormuz blockade remains in place

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

ResolvedClaude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?$5,847 tracked3 signalsClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No
101¢
69¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

4d ago

$1,500 on No at 82¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

5d ago

$2,667 on Yes at 23¢

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

5d ago

$1,680 on No at 84¢

Related Theses