Part of: Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,147.

Categories: Colombia, Elections, Politics, Global Elections, rewards 200, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

A profitable serial cross-market trader placed a bet 6.6x larger than the market’s 24h volume on the No side of a very quiet Colombian election market.

  • This bettor is up $377K lifetime across more than 2,500 resolved trades.
  • The $1.1K No buy was 6.6x the market’s entire 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
  • They have traded across 43 markets and 32 events, suggesting an experienced political/event bettor.

$1,147 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 66038788, $37,924
  2. 0xa5dc...a5f8 Outcome 21277280, $6,076
  3. 0xebab...cee0 Outcome 21277280, $5,403
  4. 0x3f9c...dd3d Outcome 21277280, $3,599
  5. 0x9c37...f507 Outcome 21277280, $2,593
  6. 0xef75...7625 Outcome 21277280, $2,296
  7. 0x05fc...f78e Outcome 21277280, $1,981
  8. 0x88ee...c234 Outcome 21277280, $1,871 (51% win rate)
  9. 0xc1b7...7135 Outcome 21277280, $1,843
  10. 0x566a...3285 Outcome 21277280, $1,455

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Neither Spirit nor Vitality wins

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Cepeda loses 2026 runoff

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Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

ResolvedColombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory$1,147 tracked1 signalColombiaElectionsPoliticsGlobal Electionsrewards 200, 4.5, 20

The second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election is currently scheduled for June 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Notable Trades

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

40d ago

$1,147 on No at 88¢

Related Theses