Part of: María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,378.

Categories: Trump-Machado, Politics, Trump, Venezuela

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market sharp

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 67% resolved win rate is taking a fresh Yes-equivalent position on a very quiet Venezuela/Machado market, with the trade dwarfing recent volume.

This bettor has traded 230 markets across 190 events and has won 67% of resolved bets.
The $2.9K trade is over 17x this market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
Selling No at 89¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 11¢, a long-shot position that pays about 9x if right.

$2,917 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Repeat new wallet buys YES

A repeat-flagged newer wallet made a nearly $5k Yes-equivalent bet on a quiet Venezuela politics market, though there is no proven track record yet.

A newer wallet with 3 prior flags took a nearly $5k Yes position on a political market where informed views are plausible.
The trade was about 26x the market’s recent quiet-volume baseline, suggesting unusually strong conviction.
Entry around 13¢ implies the bettor is targeting a low-probability outcome with meaningful upside.

$4,961 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable whale in thin market

A profitable serial cross-market trader made a very large buy into an extremely thin political market, a setup that can be worth tracking despite the poor immediate mark-to-market.

This bettor has won 63% of 377 resolved markets and is up nearly $70k overall.
They pushed $3.5k into a market that had only $152 of prior 24-hour volume, with a very thin $523 liquidity pool.
The trade came at 67¢ in a political market with a 39-point spread, showing strong conviction rather than routine flow.

$3,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%