Part of: Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
This prediction market asks whether Nithya Raman will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Voting is scheduled for June 2, 2026, with a runoff on November 3 if no candidate wins a majority; the market resolves based on the election result. Live odds were not included in the supplied market metadata.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
15 smart money signals detected, totaling $82,321.
Categories: mayor, Politics, US Election, Elections, Los Angeles, Mayoral Elections, LA, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, LA Mayor, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
Serial sharp exiting Yes
A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor exited a Yes position, though the trade appears partly to be routine profit-taking rather than a fresh No bet.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,478 resolved positions and is up $777,549 lifetime.
- The trader sold Yes after entering around 30¢, signaling reduced confidence in Raman winning.
- The position was already held and closed, so this is weaker copy evidence than a fresh No purchase.
$1,794 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Four-wallet Yes conviction cluster
Four wallets concentrated $15,768 into Yes, including profitable high-volume bettors adding to existing positions amid a 24.8x volume spike.
- Four wallets committed $15,768 to Yes, with three buying and one converting a No sale into equivalent Yes exposure.
- The flow includes two profitable bettors with 1,000-plus resolved trades and a third wallet adding to an existing position.
- Trading volume was 24.8 times its historical average, while Yes moved up roughly 2 percentage points over the week.
$15,768 on Yes
Profitable cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $252k profit is adding to a larger No position while also trading related LA mayoral markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $252k lifetime.
- They already have $26.7k on No here and just added more at 61¢.
- They are trading across 2 related LA mayoral markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$17,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $252k profit is adding to a larger No position while also trading related LA mayoral markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $252k lifetime.
- They already have $26.7k on No here and just added more at 61¢.
- They are trading across 2 related LA mayoral markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$6,949 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 88% resolved win rate and $252k profit is adding to a larger No position while also trading related LA mayoral markets.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $252k lifetime.
- They already have $26.7k on No here and just added more at 61¢.
- They are trading across 2 related LA mayoral markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$3,932 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial politics sharp
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No on Raman with an 80% resolved win rate and $3.9M lifetime profit.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $3.9M lifetime.
- They are a seasoned cross-market trader with activity across 139 events and $5.6M in flagged volume.
- Buying No at 63¢ suggests conviction against Raman despite a liquid market and tight spread.
$3,378 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
85% win-rate political whale
A highly proven cross-market trader with an 85% win rate and +$1.38M lifetime P&L bought $12.4K of Yes in a political market showing strong recent momentum.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $1.38M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $7.56M deployed across 110 events.
- They bought $12.4K of Yes at 37¢ as the market has moved up 15 points this week.
$12,384 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial trader fading rally
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is making a meaningful $6k fade of Raman after a sharp weekly rally in a relatively quiet political market.
- This bettor has 1,098 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up $274,775 lifetime.
- The $6k trade is large for recent activity, equal to about 88% of the market’s 24h volume.
- They are fading Yes after a 28% weekly rally, which converts to buying No at 60¢.
$6,003 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial election trader
Experienced profitable cross-market trader is fading Raman after a sharp weekly move, though the trade size is modest.
- This bettor has 1,098 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up about $275K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 64 events with $1.85M in tracked activity.
- This trade is a bet against Raman at 42¢ after her Yes price rose about 30 points this week.
$1,035 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial election trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market political trader is taking a No position against Raman after heavy same-event positioning.
- This bettor is up $880k lifetime across more than 1,300 resolved markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 104 events and $6.8M in tracked event bets.
- They have $96k positioned across two markets in this mayoral race and bought Raman No at 55¢.
$2,777 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $177,014
- 0x1fee...ed5e — No, $147,641 (90% win rate)
- 0x1c14...0869 — Yes, $100,000 (66% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $62,295 (70% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — No, $46,019 (82% win rate)
- 0xc8b9...b836 — Yes, $40,003 (65% win rate)
- 0x44a0...c3b9 — Yes, $31,152 (52% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — Yes, $29,940 (86% win rate)
- 0x4366...c73e — Yes, $28,424 (44% win rate)
- 0x7b60...f259 — Yes, $26,700 (56% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Starmer stays in power
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Iran ceasefire collapses by June
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Someone else wins Peru presidency
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