Part of: Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
This prediction market tracks whether Nithya Raman will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Live odds may change as the June 2 primary and potential November 3 runoff approach; the market is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026, based on the confirmed election winner.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
35 smart money signals detected, totaling $212,249.
Categories: LA, Los Angeles Mayoral Election, LA Mayor, mayor, Politics, US Election, Elections, Los Angeles, Mayoral Elections, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
Seven-wallet funded cluster backs Yes
A high-volume serial trader with substantial lifetime profit sold No while seven linked wallets share a funder, creating a notable signal for Yes despite no clear edge from the win-rate comparison.
- Seven wallets share a funder, with $18,181 in linked activity across this cluster.
- This trader has made 327 resolved bets and is up $270,442 lifetime, though its 66% win rate is below its average winning price.
- Selling No at 57¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 43¢.
$5,680 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Proven 82% bettor sells Yes
A highly profitable, proven bettor sold Yes in the mayoral market, a bearish signal equivalent to buying No, though it may be an exit from a prior Yes position.
- This bettor has won 82% of 1,747 resolved positions and is up $869,057.
- They sold Yes at 38¢, equivalent to a No position at about 62¢; this could be an exit from their earlier Yes position.
$1,980 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable bettor adds to No
A profitable bettor with 469 resolved trades is adding to an existing No position amid a 45x volume spike.
- This bettor has won 73% of 469 resolved trades and earned about $509K.
- They added $5,025 to an existing No position as market activity spiked 45x above its historical average.
- The trade entered at 48¢, with current No odds at 52¢.
$5,025 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial trader leads No cluster
Three wallets put about $20.8K behind No amid a 40x volume spike, including a profitable serial cross-market trader with a substantial track record.
- Three wallets aligned on No with about $20,800 in trades; Yes sales also translate to buying No.
- One trader has a 73% win rate across 469 resolved bets and is up about $501,500.
- The activity was roughly 40 times the market’s historical volume average, though the spike came from only five trades.
$14,546 on No
97% winner adding to Yes
A highly successful bettor added to an existing Yes position during a 25.9x volume spike, though the alert is based on a single modest trade.
- This bettor has won 91 of 94 resolved bets and is up $21,592 overall.
- They added $1,309 to an existing Yes position as market volume surged to 25.9 times its usual level.
- Yes was bought at 54¢, with odds up 10.3% over the past week.
$1,309 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
Experienced trader scaling into Yes
A highly active trader with a substantial profitable history added $30,298 to an existing Yes position while holding another position in the same election event.
- This trader has placed over 1,000 resolved bets and is up $321,721 overall.
- They added $30,298 to an existing Yes position, bringing their open stake to about $120,000.
- The trader has positioned across two markets in the same election event, with $34,887 in combined activity.
$3,984 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Proven trader in four-wallet cluster
A proven, highly profitable cross-market trader is part of a four-wallet funded cluster, though the opposing sells make the market-specific direction less clear.
- This bettor has won 80% of 45 resolved bets and is up $361,727.
- Four wallets sharing a funder traded about $7,110 here, but the sells point in opposite directions.
- The larger sell was Yes, equivalent to buying No; the trader also sold No, so the net thesis is uncertain.
$7,110 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable bettor leaning Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 80% win rate and substantial lifetime gains sold No, equivalent to buying Yes, though the existing No position may indicate an exit rather than a fresh entry.
- This bettor has won 36 of 45 resolved bets and is up about $396K lifetime.
- Selling No at 45¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at about 55¢; the wallet also has activity across two markets in this election.
- The wallet already held No at a 42¢ average entry, so this may be position management rather than a new Yes bet.
$18,737 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Experienced trader scaling into Yes
A highly active trader with a substantial profitable history added $30,298 to an existing Yes position while holding another position in the same election event.
- This trader has placed over 1,000 resolved bets and is up $321,721 overall.
- They added $30,298 to an existing Yes position, bringing their open stake to about $120,000.
- The trader has positioned across two markets in the same election event, with $34,887 in combined activity.
$30,298 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial trader adding to Yes
A consistently profitable serial cross-market trader added an $11.2K Yes position to an already substantial holding, signaling continued conviction despite recent price weakness.
- This trader is up $142K across nearly 2,000 resolved bets and has traded across 44 events.
- They added $11.2K to a Yes position already backed by $146K, despite the market falling 9% over the past week.
$11,196 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $333,610
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $245,592 (79% win rate)
- 0x1fee...ed5e — No, $166,641 (88% win rate)
- 0x1c14...0869 — Yes, $145,495 (67% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $134,924 (72% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $115,000 (48% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — Yes, $110,230 (86% win rate)
- 0x56d0...81d6 — No, $53,870 (63% win rate)
- 0xad89...f6e1 — Yes, $51,678 (66% win rate)
- 0x2061...8ec9 — No, $42,817 (26% win rate)
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