Part of: Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,776.

Categories: Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel x Iran, Israel, strike, Geopolitics, Middle East

Notable Trades

New wallet scaling into Yes

A brand-new repeat wallet is making a concentrated Yes bet in an extremely thin market, though it has no proven track record yet.

  • A wallet only 40 minutes old has flagged $20,154 across three positions, showing unusually strong early conviction.
  • The $1,622 trade effectively buys Yes at 90¢ in a market with just $32 of liquidity and an 84-point spread.
  • There is no resolved-position history yet, so the signal reflects conviction and market illiquidity rather than a proven edge.

$1,622 on Yes

New whale scaling into No

A brand-new wallet placed roughly $20,000 into No across an exceptionally illiquid market, creating a notable high-conviction signal despite having no proven track record.

  • A wallet only 15 minutes old committed about $20,000 to No, with two large buys at 85¢ and 88¢.
  • The position is enormous relative to the market’s roughly $28 liquidity and near-zero recent volume.
  • There is no resolved-position history, so the conviction is notable but the trader’s reliability remains unproven.

$20,154 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xdf90...41f0 Outcome 11085731, $1,169 (49% win rate)
  2. 0x032a...cf07 Outcome 11085731, $680
  3. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 11085731, $167
  4. 0x9a94...d5f9 Outcome 11085731, $50
  5. 0x923c...fa1d Outcome 11085731, $47
  6. 0xcec6...cee3 Outcome 11085731, $42
  7. 0x7143...5da0 Outcome 11085731, $36
  8. 0x510f...a43c Outcome 11085731, $30
  9. 0xb06c...b574 Outcome 11085731, $28 (90% win rate)
  10. 0xc291...976a Outcome 11085731, $20

Related Theses

Israel attacks Lebanon after September 7

Covers 2 related markets

Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9?

ResolvedIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?$21,776 tracked2 signalsLebanonHezbollahIsrael x IranIsraelstrikeGeopoliticsMiddle East

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
75¢
48¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9?

6d ago

$1,622 on Yes at 90¢

Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9?

6d ago

$20,154 on No at 88¢

Related Theses