Part of: Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 14?
This Polymarket prediction market asks whether Israel will take a qualifying military action against Lebanon on September 14, 2026, measured in Israel Daylight Time. The market resolves Yes for an Israeli air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Lebanon, and No otherwise. Smart money activity totals $32,092 across two tracked signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,092.
Categories: Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel x Iran, Israel, strike, Geopolitics, Middle East
Notable Trades
New whale moves a paper-thin market
A brand-new wallet deployed nearly $17,000 into an extremely illiquid market and drove a sharp price move, though its opposing trades and lack of history reduce copyability.
- A 21-minute-old wallet committed $15,112 to No in a market with only about $90 of liquidity.
- The trade was associated with a reported 78-point move, suggesting unusually strong short-term conviction or market impact.
- There is no resolved track record, and the same wallet also sold No, so the signal is compelling but difficult to interpret cleanly.
$16,980 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
New whale bets heavily on No
A brand-new wallet committed $15,112 to No in an extremely illiquid geopolitical market, creating a notable high-conviction trade despite having no track record.
- A wallet just 15 minutes old placed a $15,112 bet on No in a market with only $91 liquidity.
- The position is roughly 165 times the market's reported liquidity, signaling unusually strong conviction or information.
- This wallet has no resolved trading history, so the trade is notable but unproven; No was bought at 89¢.
$15,112 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0xad53...ef24 — No, $50
- 0x9e3e...f882 — Yes, $43 (44% win rate)
- 0x5510...1862 — Yes, $16
- 0x82b6...5a2e — Yes, $13
- 0x91ff...8f40 — No, $12 (63% win rate)
- 0x471c...9e94 — No, $7
- 0x5b7b...e75e — No, $7
- 0x758d...5d9e — No, $6
- 0x7dce...981e — Yes, $6
- 0xbd91...6262 — Yes, $4
