Part of: Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI’s private market valuation will reach or exceed $1.0 trillion by December 31, 2026, based on Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price data. The market resolves after the valuation window closes, with final resolution scheduled for January 1, 2027. PolySpotter is tracking $4,000 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent sharp interest on the No side.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,938.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, Tech, Big Tech, AI, chatgpt, sam altman, OpenAI, OpenAI IPO, gpt, Altman

Notable Trades

New wallet, quiet-market conviction

A 2-day-old wallet made a $4,000 Yes bet on a quiet OpenAI valuation market, with repeat large-bet behavior and size exceeding recent daily volume.

  • A 2-day-old wallet put $4,000 on Yes, adding to a repeat pattern of $6,000 in flagged large bets.
  • The bet was 176% of the market’s 24h volume, suggesting unusually strong conviction in a quiet market.
  • Entry at 85¢ is above the current 82¢ price, so the trader was willing to pay up for the position.

$4,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Perfect-record bettor in quiet market

A profitable 11-0 bettor made a market-moving Yes buy in a quiet OpenAI valuation market, with price already moving from 88¢ to 93¢.

  • This bettor is 11-for-11 on resolved trades and is up about $4.5K lifetime.
  • Their $1.6K Yes buy was over 6x the market’s recent 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
  • They entered at 88¢ and the market has already moved to 93¢, suggesting momentum behind the thesis.

$1,560 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

High-hit-rate contrarian

A moderately sharp wallet with a 79% hit rate is taking a contrarian No position at 14¢, though the signal is tempered by negative lifetime P&L and modest size.

  • This bettor has won 79% of resolved positions, beating average market odds by a wide margin.
  • They are fading the popular side, effectively buying No at 14¢ while Yes trades around 86%.
  • The market is quiet, with only $238 traded in 24 hours, so a $1k bet is notable flow.

$1,024 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Proven sharp buying No

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 75% long-term win rate bought No on a thin OpenAI valuation market before the No price moved from 15¢ to 19¢.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 1,881 resolved trades and is up $2.65M lifetime.
  • They are a seasoned cross-market trader, with $935K deployed across 95 related markets.
  • They bought No at 15¢ on a thin market, and the price has already moved to 19¢.

$1,354 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4337...8882 No, $12,121 (74% win rate)
  2. 0xceee...d39e Yes, $5,171 (66% win rate)
  3. 0x1543...baaf No, $3,796 (36% win rate)
  4. 0x2e1c...db61 Yes, $3,380
  5. 0x59e4...3130 Yes, $2,498
  6. 0xb121...b73c Yes, $1,950 (100% win rate)
  7. 0xb1fe...423a No, $1,868
  8. 0x7bb3...b498 No, $1,837
  9. 0x7994...c512 Yes, $1,812
  10. 0xd5b9...e44e Yes, $1,648 (59% win rate)

Related Theses

Hormuz blockade stays through June

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

164dWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?$7,938 tracked4 signalsFinancePrivatesllmTechBig TechAIchatgptsam altmanOpenAIOpenAI IPOgptAltman
Yes
55¢
No
45¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “Yes
62¢
58¢
54¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

35d ago

$4,000 on Yes at 85¢

85¢55¢30¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

51d ago

$1,560 on Yes at 88¢

88¢55¢33¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

53d ago

$1,024 on No at 14¢

14¢45¢31¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

61d ago

$1,354 on No at 15¢

15¢45¢30¢

Related Theses