Part of: When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,990.

Categories: AI, Tech, OpenAI, gpt, rewards 200, 4.5, 20 Deprec

Notable Trades

New wallet chasing momentum

A 16-hour-old wallet made a $3.6K buy into a fast-moving AI release market, with recent odds momentum supporting the direction despite no resolved track record.

  • A brand-new wallet put $3.6K on Yes within its first day of activity.
  • The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 36 points in 24 hours and 50 points this week.
  • The bet is meaningful relative to liquidity, equal to about one-third of the visible market depth.

$3,586 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

New wallet moving AI odds

A 17-hour-old wallet made a $3.9k fresh bet that GPT-5.6 will miss the June 28 deadline, contributing to a sharp one-day price move in a moderately thin market.

  • A brand-new wallet put $3.9k on GPT-5.6 missing the June 28 deadline.
  • The market has surged 46 points in a day, with this trade entering at 54¢ and Yes now around 58¢.
  • The bet was large versus the $6.4k liquidity, suggesting concentrated conviction.

$3,882 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

81% winner buying Yes

Surfaced because a wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes on this AI release-date market at 24¢.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $6.6K lifetime.
  • They are buying Yes at 24¢, implying they see meaningful upside versus the current market price.
  • The wallet has been flagged 7 times before and is placing fresh money into a market that is up 10% over the past week.

$1,065 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

83% winner backs No

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the wallet has an 83% record across 1,120 resolved bets and is buying No with size in a quiet market.

  • This bettor has won 83% of 1,120 resolved bets and is up $5.6K lifetime.
  • They bought $1.46K of No at 78¢, a trade nearly equal to the market’s recent 24h volume.
  • The market is relatively quiet, so this size suggests real conviction on GPT-5.6 not releasing by June 28.

$1,458 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 80712972, $77,094
  2. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 80712972, $3,360
  3. 0x0149...d3c5 Outcome 80712972, $3,085
  4. 0x2589...6868 Outcome 80712972, $2,588 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x9352...2227 Outcome 80712972, $2,478 (65% win rate)
  6. 0xe32b...626e Outcome 80712972, $2,423
  7. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 80712972, $2,395
  8. 0x93a9...0b88 Outcome 80712972, $2,085 (53% win rate)
  9. 0x37b2...ab29 Outcome 80712972, $1,159
  10. 0x7bec...b4e2 Outcome 80712972, $1,056 (80% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran deal by June end

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Claude Fable returns by July

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Trump rejects enrichment, accepts fees

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GPT-5.6 not before June 22

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Hormuz shipping remains robust

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US-Iran signing falls through

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Araghchi signs, Ghalibaf doesn't

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Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

ResolvedWhen will GPT-5.6 be released?$9,990 tracked4 signalsAITechOpenAIgptrewards 200, 4.5, 20 Deprec

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public. GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
79¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

10d ago

$3,586 on Yes at 73¢

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

11d ago

$3,882 on Yes at 54¢

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

13d ago

$1,065 on Yes at 24¢

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

14d ago

$1,458 on No at 78¢

Related Theses