Part of: Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether the Republican candidate will win Nebraska’s 2026 U.S. Senate election, including any required runoff. The market is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026, based on the official election winner; current odds and smart-money activity are available on PolySpotter.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,181.
Categories: Nebraska Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, US Election, Elections, Politics, Dan Osborn, Pete Ricketts, Key Senate Races, Senate midterms
Notable Trades
Three-wallet Yes cluster with a sharp bettor
Three wallets bought $10,965 of Yes, including a strongly profitable bettor with a 96% record and evidence of continued conviction from an existing position.
- Three wallets bought Yes within seconds, totaling nearly $11,000 at 75¢.
- One bettor is 96% on 25 resolved bets and up $48,010; another is up $614,891 across 395 resolved bets.
- One buyer already holds over $11,000 in Yes shares, signaling continued conviction.
$10,965 on Yes
Serial trader adds to sizable Yes position
A prolific, profitable trader added $3,724 to an existing Yes position amid a 32x volume spike, though their record does not clearly establish an odds-adjusted edge.
- A trader with 1,827 resolved bets and $52,927 in profit added another $3,724 to an existing Yes position.
- Trading activity was 32 times its historical average, alongside an 8-point rise in Yes odds over the past day.
- The wallet’s 74% win rate is not clear evidence of an edge at these odds; its average winning price is 83%.
$3,552 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable serial trader adds to YES
A consistently profitable cross-market trader with a 79% win rate and meaningful edge is adding $5,000 to an existing Nebraska Republican position.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $95,340 overall.
- They have traded across 45 events and are adding $5,000 to an existing YES position.
- The market is liquid, with YES at 78¢ and the entry at 79¢.
$5,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Serial trader adds to sizable Yes position
A prolific, profitable trader added $3,724 to an existing Yes position amid a 32x volume spike, though their record does not clearly establish an odds-adjusted edge.
- A trader with 1,827 resolved bets and $52,927 in profit added another $3,724 to an existing Yes position.
- Trading activity was 32 times its historical average, alongside an 8-point rise in Yes odds over the past day.
- The wallet’s 74% win rate is not clear evidence of an edge at these odds; its average winning price is 83%.
$3,724 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable serial trader buys Nebraska No
A highly profitable serial trader with an 80% win rate made a large contrarian No bet in an unusually quiet market.
- This bettor has won 80% of 203 resolved trades and earned $3.86M in reported profit.
- The $2,941 No position was more than 5,000% of the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a thin market.
- The entry at 31¢ implies the trader sees No as meaningfully underpriced versus the 32% market probability.
$2,941 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x9c99...7250 — Yes, $204,703 (100% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $188,112
- 0xdaef...54e9 — No, $100,271 (68% win rate)
- 0x6575...b198 — No, $84,627 (75% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $74,810 (79% win rate)
- 0xdc41...dd7e — No, $53,437 (46% win rate)
- 0xf031...c80c — Yes, $50,910 (89% win rate)
- 0x1fee...ed5e — Yes, $40,101 (88% win rate)
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $37,813 (73% win rate)
- 0xe3f2...e1c1 — No, $37,134 (72% win rate)
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