Part of: Next Claude Opus released by...?
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,346.
Categories: AI Releases, Claude, Opus, Tech, AI, Anthropic
Notable Trades
Repeat new wallet scaling into Yes
A recently created, repeatedly flagged wallet is adding to a sizable Yes position while also positioning across three related markets, though its resolved track record is limited.
- This 17-day-old wallet has made 16 large-bet appearances, with $33,902 flagged and $1,934 in reported profit.
- It is adding $2,936 to an existing Yes position totaling about $14,400, showing continued conviction at 77¢.
- The wallet has also traded three markets tied to the same event, while Yes has recently risen 5 percentage points in a day.
$1,394 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 33%
Repeat new wallet scaling into Yes
A recently created, repeatedly flagged wallet is adding to a sizable Yes position while also positioning across three related markets, though its resolved track record is limited.
- This 17-day-old wallet has made 16 large-bet appearances, with $33,902 flagged and $1,934 in reported profit.
- It is adding $2,936 to an existing Yes position totaling about $14,400, showing continued conviction at 77¢.
- The wallet has also traded three markets tied to the same event, while Yes has recently risen 5 percentage points in a day.
$2,936 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 33%
New profitable AI-event trader
A repeat-flagged 16-day-old wallet with positive early P&L is actively trading the Claude release market, taking profit at 90¢ and re-entering Yes at 77¢ amid a sharp 1-day move.
- This 16-day-old wallet has already put $26K into flagged trades and is up about $1.9K so far.
- The bettor sold Yes at 90¢, then bought back at 77¢, suggesting active conviction rather than a one-off bet.
- They are also positioned across 3 related Claude markets, pointing to a broader AI-release thesis.
$7,016 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 33%
Top Holders
- 0xd49a...6f4c — No, $11,400 (100% win rate)
- 0xecb5...ae3a — No, $9,989
- 0x652b...f5c2 — No, $8,221
- 0x201a...3418 — No, $5,860
- 0x5a21...9318 — No, $4,877 (65% win rate)
- 0xfcf2...7279 — No, $4,673 (37% win rate)
- 0xdc80...ae6f — No, $3,194 (76% win rate)
- 0xcb8f...cce3 — No, $3,051
- 0xfc08...a012 — No, $3,048 (75% win rate)
- 0x31a5...6c30 — No, $3,043
Related Theses
Claude Opus launches by July 22
Covers 3 related markets
