Part of: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether MicroStrategy will sell any of its Bitcoin holdings by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves based primarily on MicroStrategy disclosures and on-chain data, with credible reporting used if needed. PolySpotter is tracking $2,604 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.
29 smart money signals detected, totaling $123,869.
Categories: Finance, Economy, Business, 2025 Predictions, Crypto, MicroStrategy, Stocks
Notable Trades
Proven 82% cross-market sharp
A highly proven cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and $708k lifetime profit is buying Yes at 90¢ across the MicroStrategy Bitcoin-sale event.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $708k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.56M deployed across 69 related markets.
- Buying at 90¢ shows conviction that MicroStrategy sells some Bitcoin before the end of 2026.
$2,604 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
90% winner buying Yes
Sharp wallet override applies: a 90% lifetime winner with positive P&L is buying Yes, with linked-wallet clustering adding corroboration despite modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 90% of 97 resolved trades and is up $6.4K lifetime.
- Three wallets tied to the same funder have appeared in this cluster pattern before.
- Buying at 90¢ suggests confidence even with the market already pricing Yes as likely.
$1,712 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial cross-market whale
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $618k lifetime P&L is adding a $9.7k Yes position, though the edge is modest because the market is liquid and already priced near 90%.
- This trader is up $618k lifetime across 1,254 resolved bets.
- They have traded 98 related events with $6.7M total deployed, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- The $9.7k buy at 90¢ backs the high-probability Yes side despite a long time to resolution.
$9,703 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
82% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $707k profit is buying Yes while building a broader cross-market thesis on the same event.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $707k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.56M deployed across 67 related markets.
- This is part of a 3-market thesis totaling $37k around MicroStrategy Bitcoin-sale outcomes.
$2,327 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
96% winner buying No
A proven 96% win-rate wallet is fading the high-probability Yes side, effectively buying No at 12¢ despite only a modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 51 of 53 resolved trades and is up $1.5K lifetime.
- Selling Yes at 88¢ is effectively a bet on No at 12¢.
- The wallet is taking the contrarian side after Yes moved up 10 points this week.
$1,016 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
89% serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with a large resolved history and 89% win rate bought $4.5k of Yes at 90¢ on a market with recent upward momentum.
- This bettor has won 89% of 508 resolved bets and is up $3.3k lifetime.
- They are highly active across markets, with $1.77M traded over 403 events.
- Yes has moved up 11 points this week, and this buy adds to that momentum at 90¢.
$4,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly active cross-market wallet with $626K lifetime profit is buying $8K of Yes near current odds, though the signal is mostly track record rather than a fresh market dislocation.
- This wallet is up $626K across 1,250 resolved markets.
- It has traded 97 events and is putting $8K on Yes at 90¢ here.
- The market has already moved 9.5 points this week, matching the bettor’s direction.
$8,086 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable cross-market trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is building a broader MicroStrategy/Bitcoin thesis across 3 related markets with about $96k positioned.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,193 resolved trades, 59% wins, and $173k lifetime profit.
- They are active across 3 related markets in this event, with about $96k total positioned.
- Buying Yes at 87¢ suggests they are backing the high-probability view that MicroStrategy sells some Bitcoin by 2026.
$3,064 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Profitable cross-market contrarian
Profitable wallet with a 70% resolved-bet record is taking a contrarian No position as part of a larger $32.7k cross-market thesis.
- This bettor is up $77.8k lifetime with 55 wins on 79 resolved bets.
- They have placed $32.7k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Selling Yes at 89¢ is equivalent to buying No at 11¢, against a market currently pricing Yes near 90%.
$1,583 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume wallet is re-entering Yes while holding a broader $75k cross-market thesis on this event.
- This bettor is up $149,712 lifetime across more than $13.8M traded.
- They have a broader $75,334 position across 3 related markets in this event.
- Re-entered Yes at 85¢ after previously trading an $18,402 Yes position.
$2,458 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Top Holders
- 0xd5d1...8a18 — Outcome 99807503, $58,899
- 0x77c8...bc8c — Outcome 99807503, $30,196 (36% win rate)
- 0x9411...63c7 — Outcome 11112819, $30,000 (46% win rate)
- 0x4f5d...ea9e — Outcome 99807503, $20,000 (50% win rate)
- 0x93d5...0a45 — Outcome 99807503, $20,000 (11% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 99807503, $16,194 (70% win rate)
- 0xa3ad...6866 — Outcome 99807503, $15,000
- 0x0aa3...3044 — Outcome 99807503, $13,004 (35% win rate)
- 0x2ba0...6bc1 — Outcome 99807503, $12,694
- 0x50b0...1640 — Outcome 99807503, $10,733 (100% win rate)
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