What does this MicroStrategy Bitcoin Polymarket resolve on?

It resolves to “Yes” if MicroStrategy sells any amount of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. If no sale is confirmed by that deadline, it resolves to “No.”

How will a MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale be verified?

The primary resolution sources are information from MicroStrategy and on-chain data. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official or blockchain evidence needs support.

When does the MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after the deadline, with the listed resolution time of January 1, 2027 at 05:00 UTC, which corresponds to midnight ET after December 31, 2026.

Why are traders watching this MicroStrategy Bitcoin market?

MicroStrategy is one of the most closely watched corporate Bitcoin holders, so any sale could affect sentiment around MSTR stock, Bitcoin treasury strategies, and crypto markets more broadly.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking here?

PolySpotter currently tracks $2,604 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this market, including alerts such as sharp cross-market activity, whale positioning, and profitable repeat bettor behavior.

Part of: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether MicroStrategy will sell any of its Bitcoin holdings by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves based primarily on MicroStrategy disclosures and on-chain data, with credible reporting used if needed. PolySpotter is tracking $2,604 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

29 smart money signals detected, totaling $123,869.

Categories: Finance, Economy, Business, 2025 Predictions, Crypto, MicroStrategy, Stocks

Notable Trades

Proven 82% cross-market sharp

A highly proven cross-market trader with an 82% win rate and $708k lifetime profit is buying Yes at 90¢ across the MicroStrategy Bitcoin-sale event.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $708k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.56M deployed across 69 related markets.
Buying at 90¢ shows conviction that MicroStrategy sells some Bitcoin before the end of 2026.

$2,604 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

90% winner buying Yes

Sharp wallet override applies: a 90% lifetime winner with positive P&L is buying Yes, with linked-wallet clustering adding corroboration despite modest trade size.

This bettor has won 90% of 97 resolved trades and is up $6.4K lifetime.
Three wallets tied to the same funder have appeared in this cluster pattern before.
Buying at 90¢ suggests confidence even with the market already pricing Yes as likely.

$1,712 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial cross-market whale

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $618k lifetime P&L is adding a $9.7k Yes position, though the edge is modest because the market is liquid and already priced near 90%.

This trader is up $618k lifetime across 1,254 resolved bets.
They have traded 98 related events with $6.7M total deployed, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
The $9.7k buy at 90¢ backs the high-probability Yes side despite a long time to resolution.

$9,703 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

82% winner cross-market thesis

Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $707k profit is buying Yes while building a broader cross-market thesis on the same event.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $707k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.56M deployed across 67 related markets.
This is part of a 3-market thesis totaling $37k around MicroStrategy Bitcoin-sale outcomes.

$2,327 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

96% winner buying No

A proven 96% win-rate wallet is fading the high-probability Yes side, effectively buying No at 12¢ despite only a modest trade size.

This bettor has won 51 of 53 resolved trades and is up $1.5K lifetime.
Selling Yes at 88¢ is effectively a bet on No at 12¢.
The wallet is taking the contrarian side after Yes moved up 10 points this week.

$1,016 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

89% serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market bettor with a large resolved history and 89% win rate bought $4.5k of Yes at 90¢ on a market with recent upward momentum.

This bettor has won 89% of 508 resolved bets and is up $3.3k lifetime.
They are highly active across markets, with $1.77M traded over 403 events.
Yes has moved up 11 points this week, and this buy adds to that momentum at 90¢.

$4,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly active cross-market wallet with $626K lifetime profit is buying $8K of Yes near current odds, though the signal is mostly track record rather than a fresh market dislocation.

This wallet is up $626K across 1,250 resolved markets.
It has traded 97 events and is putting $8K on Yes at 90¢ here.
The market has already moved 9.5 points this week, matching the bettor’s direction.

$8,086 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable cross-market trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader is building a broader MicroStrategy/Bitcoin thesis across 3 related markets with about $96k positioned.

This bettor has a long track record: 1,193 resolved trades, 59% wins, and $173k lifetime profit.
They are active across 3 related markets in this event, with about $96k total positioned.
Buying Yes at 87¢ suggests they are backing the high-probability view that MicroStrategy sells some Bitcoin by 2026.

$3,064 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Profitable cross-market contrarian

Profitable wallet with a 70% resolved-bet record is taking a contrarian No position as part of a larger $32.7k cross-market thesis.

This bettor is up $77.8k lifetime with 55 wins on 79 resolved bets.
They have placed $32.7k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Selling Yes at 89¢ is equivalent to buying No at 11¢, against a market currently pricing Yes near 90%.

$1,583 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%