Part of: Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,849.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market No accumulator

A serial cross-market trader is adding to a substantial No position, with repeated positioning across three markets in the same event.

  • The wallet added $1,378 to an existing $24,067 No position, signaling continued conviction.
  • The trader has positioned across three markets in this event, with $20,895 in total activity; its record shows 83% wins and $70,735 in profit.

$8,057 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Serial cross-market No accumulator

A serial cross-market trader is adding to a substantial No position, with repeated positioning across three markets in the same event.

  • The wallet added $1,378 to an existing $24,067 No position, signaling continued conviction.
  • The trader has positioned across three markets in this event, with $20,895 in total activity; its record shows 83% wins and $70,735 in profit.

$1,378 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable bettor adds to large NO position

A profitable, high-volume bettor added to an existing $16,039 NO position and is active across three related markets, though the wallet’s win rate is below its average winning entry price.

  • The wallet has made $69,974 across 694 resolved bets and added another $1,226 to its existing NO position.
  • The bettor has about $20,743 across three related markets, while YES odds have fallen 12% over the past week.

$1,226 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Repeat bettor adding to No

The wallet added about $3,049 to an existing No position and has repeated aligned bets across three related markets, though its 83% win rate is not clearly above the odds it typically pays.

  • The wallet added about $3,049 to an existing No position already worth $14,534.
  • It has bet across three related markets, with $22,566 in activity and an 83% historical win rate.
  • No was bought around 82–84¢, near the current 84¢ price; the market has recently moved toward No.

$3,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Profitable serial trader adds to No

A profitable serial cross-market trader with 420 resolved bets is adding $4,682 to an existing No position in a relatively thin market.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 420 resolved trades and is up $126,371 lifetime.
  • The $4,682 addition represented 71% of the market's recent 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in No.
  • This is an added position rather than a new entry, with No shares bought at 66¢.

$4,682 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Proven serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with a 79% win rate is buying No at a price near market odds, providing meaningful but moderate copy-trade signal.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 1,212 resolved trades and is up $539,139 lifetime.
  • The trader is taking No at 63¢, closely aligned with the current 64% market estimate.
  • They have traded 774 events and are also positioned across two markets in this event.

$1,457 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $9,203 (79% win rate)
  2. 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $6,897 (61% win rate)
  3. 0x254e...e722 — Yes, $5,000 (63% win rate)
  4. 0x0978...00e6 — Yes, $2,400 (62% win rate)
  5. 0xa20c...451a — Yes, $2,000 (35% win rate)
  6. 0x97ea...3363 — Yes, $1,892 (71% win rate)
  7. 0x9ddf...2c83 — Yes, $1,843 (25% win rate)
  8. 0x24c8...23e1 — Yes, $1,790 (41% win rate)
  9. 0xf5e8...9fbd — Yes, $1,650
  10. 0x6725...1bf9 — Yes, $1,540

Related Theses

Bitcoin dips to $60K, not $50K

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 4 related markets

Bitcoin stays below 70K

Covers 5 related markets

Bitcoin will swing between $60K–$70K

Covers 7 related markets

Bitcoin will swing wildly in August

Covers 10 related markets

Machado enters Venezuela in July

Covers 4 related markets

Bab el-Mandeb will remain open

Covers 2 related markets

Iran-Oman Hormuz deal won’t happen

Covers 3 related markets

Iranian blockade will persist

Covers 6 related markets

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?$19,849 tracked6 signalsIranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
102¢
98¢
94¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

2026-10-10 13:58 UTC

$8,057 on No at 81¢

81¢→100¢↑19¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

2026-10-10 07:08 UTC

$1,378 on No at 81¢

81¢→100¢↑19¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

2026-10-01 12:01 UTC

$1,226 on No at 82¢

82¢→100¢↑18¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

2026-10-01 06:32 UTC

$3,049 on No at 83¢

83¢→100¢↑17¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

2026-09-18 05:51 UTC

$4,682 on No at 66¢

66¢→100¢↑34¢

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

2026-09-17 04:54 UTC

$1,457 on No at 63¢

63¢→100¢↑37¢

Related Theses