Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
31 signals across 8 markets · $111,086 tracked · resolves Nov 1, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Iran and Oman announce a diplomatic agreement to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by the specified deadline. The event currently has one Yes/No child market, with PolySpotter alerts showing a bettor scaling into a sharp No breakout.
Markets (8)
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?10 signals · $31,798 tracked
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?1 signal · $20,786 tracked
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?6 signals · $19,849 tracked
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?5 signals · $12,260 tracked
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?3 signals · $12,076 tracked
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?3 signals · $6,619 tracked
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 22?1 signal · $5,149 tracked
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?2 signals · $2,551 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Seven-wallet coordinated Yes buying
Seven linked wallets are coordinating on Yes alongside a sharp 35.5% one-day price move, though the lead wallet lacks a clearly superior historical edge.
$1,258Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Sharp serial trader joins No cluster
Three wallets concentrated $7,414 into No, including a highly profitable 73% winner and a serial cross-market trader, while No fell 18% in a day.
$7,414Score: 6.1 - Four-wallet No cluster amid volume spike
Four wallets added $26.7K to No alongside a 331.8x volume spike, creating a notable coordinated directional signal despite limited track-record evidence.
$20,786Score: 5.5 - Repeat bettor adding to No
The wallet added about $3,049 to an existing No position and has repeated aligned bets across three related markets, though its 83% win rate is not clearly above the odds it typically pays.
$3,049Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.3 - Profitable bettor adds to large NO position
A profitable, high-volume bettor added to an existing $16,039 NO position and is active across three related markets, though the wallet’s win rate is below its average winning entry price.
$1,226Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.3 - Serial cross-market No accumulator
A serial cross-market trader is adding to a substantial No position, with repeated positioning across three markets in the same event.
$1,378Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.3 - 73% serial bettor buys No
A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 73% win rate made a concentrated No bet in a thin-flow window, and the market moved toward No afterward.
$2,852Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 5.3 - Serial cross-market No accumulator
A serial cross-market trader is adding to a substantial No position, with repeated positioning across three markets in the same event.
$8,057Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 5.1 - Serial trader backs No
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate made a fresh $1,810 No bet, and the market subsequently moved toward No.
$1,810Wallet win rate: 73%Score: 5.1 - Proven bettor scaling into Yes
A proven 81% win-rate trader is adding to an existing Yes position in a market that has risen 35% over the past week.
$1,450Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.9
Top wallets in this event
- 0x85a858…9281$21,648 · 3 markets · 5 alerts · 92% wins
- 0x879247…4174$13,710 · 1 market · 4 alerts · 83% wins
- 0x0a2605…1851$10,360 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xb4f259…e5fa$8,332 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 77% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$7,352 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 63% wins
- 0x3c593a…1766$4,662 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$4,248 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x524db8…4495$2,038 · 1 market · 1 alert · 77% wins
- 0xc62d2e…74fc$1,450 · 1 market · 1 alert · 76% wins
- 0x9e7296…99c4$1,374 · 1 market · 1 alert · 74% wins
FAQs
What are the Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement odds?
The event’s live Yes/No odds are displayed on the PolySpotter market page and update as traders buy and sell shares about whether an agreement will be announced by the deadline.
What does this Iran-Oman prediction market resolve on?
It resolves Yes if Iran and Oman announce a qualifying official agreement, treaty, deal, or similar diplomatic instrument establishing commitments related to managing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date.
What is smart money doing in this market?
PolySpotter is tracking one smart-money signal so far: a bettor scaling into a sharp No breakout, indicating notable trading activity against the agreement outcome.
When does the Iran-Oman Hormuz market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, based on the exchange’s listed resolution time.