Part of: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $281,473.

Categories: Soccer, Sports, Awards

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a strong resolved-market record added a substantial No position amid a cross-market volume spike, despite also holding an older Yes position.

This bettor is up $935K across 47 resolved bets, with a 70% win rate.
They added $48K to No at 75¢, alongside $83K of positioning across three related markets.
Trading volume spiked 17× its historical average, and the market’s odds have moved sharply recently.

$48,351 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a strong resolved-market record added a substantial No position amid a cross-market volume spike, despite also holding an older Yes position.

This bettor is up $935K across 47 resolved bets, with a 70% win rate.
They added $48K to No at 75¢, alongside $83K of positioning across three related markets.
Trading volume spiked 17× its historical average, and the market’s odds have moved sharply recently.

$40,737 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a strong resolved-market record added a substantial No position amid a cross-market volume spike, despite also holding an older Yes position.

This bettor is up $935K across 47 resolved bets, with a 70% win rate.
They added $48K to No at 75¢, alongside $83K of positioning across three related markets.
Trading volume spiked 17× its historical average, and the market’s odds have moved sharply recently.

$89,159 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a strong resolved-market record added a substantial No position amid a cross-market volume spike, despite also holding an older Yes position.

This bettor is up $935K across 47 resolved bets, with a 70% win rate.
They added $48K to No at 75¢, alongside $83K of positioning across three related markets.
Trading volume spiked 17× its historical average, and the market’s odds have moved sharply recently.

$56,788 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial cross-market trader, net No

A heavily active, historically profitable cross-market trader has returned to this event, though its overall win rate does not clearly beat its average entry odds and the current trades partially offset.

This trader is up $232,466 across more than 13,000 resolved positions and has traded 275 events.
The wallet has positioned across three markets in this event, with the current trades leaving a net No position here.
The 67% win rate is below the wallet’s 75¢ average win price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.

$2,366 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial cross-market trader, net No

This trader is up $232,466 across more than 13,000 resolved positions and has traded 275 events.
The wallet has positioned across three markets in this event, with the current trades leaving a net No position here.
The 67% win rate is below the wallet’s 75¢ average win price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.

$3,848 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial cross-market trader, net No

This trader is up $232,466 across more than 13,000 resolved positions and has traded 275 events.
The wallet has positioned across three markets in this event, with the current trades leaving a net No position here.
The 67% win rate is below the wallet’s 75¢ average win price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.

$3,847 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Five-wallet No cluster with proven bettors

Five wallets bought No together, including two with strong profitable track records, though some No trades may hedge existing large Yes positions.

Five wallets bought No within seconds, putting $7,178 behind the same outcome.
Two participants have strong records: one wins 75% across 9,506 bets and another wins 84% across 1,614.
Some wallets already hold large Yes positions, so their No buys may partly be hedges rather than pure conviction.

$14,862 on No

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader is again buying No, though the entry matches current odds and their win rate does not clearly beat their average entry prices.

This bettor has resolved 13,112 positions and is up about $226,000 overall.
They have positions across three markets tied to this event, with $36,303 in total activity.
The $1,400 No buy at 79¢ goes against the market’s recent Yes price rise, but matches the current No odds.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial cross-market trader, net No

This trader is up $232,466 across more than 13,000 resolved positions and has traded 275 events.
The wallet has positioned across three markets in this event, with the current trades leaving a net No position here.
The 67% win rate is below the wallet’s 75¢ average win price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%