Part of: Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

19 smart money signals detected, totaling $281,473.

Categories: Soccer, Sports, Awards

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a strong resolved-market record added a substantial No position amid a cross-market volume spike, despite also holding an older Yes position.

  • This bettor is up $935K across 47 resolved bets, with a 70% win rate.
  • They added $48K to No at 75¢, alongside $83K of positioning across three related markets.
  • Trading volume spiked 17× its historical average, and the market’s odds have moved sharply recently.

$48,351 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a strong resolved-market record added a substantial No position amid a cross-market volume spike, despite also holding an older Yes position.

  • This bettor is up $935K across 47 resolved bets, with a 70% win rate.
  • They added $48K to No at 75¢, alongside $83K of positioning across three related markets.
  • Trading volume spiked 17× its historical average, and the market’s odds have moved sharply recently.

$40,737 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a strong resolved-market record added a substantial No position amid a cross-market volume spike, despite also holding an older Yes position.

  • This bettor is up $935K across 47 resolved bets, with a 70% win rate.
  • They added $48K to No at 75¢, alongside $83K of positioning across three related markets.
  • Trading volume spiked 17× its historical average, and the market’s odds have moved sharply recently.

$89,159 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable bettor adding to No

A highly profitable bettor with a strong resolved-market record added a substantial No position amid a cross-market volume spike, despite also holding an older Yes position.

  • This bettor is up $935K across 47 resolved bets, with a 70% win rate.
  • They added $48K to No at 75¢, alongside $83K of positioning across three related markets.
  • Trading volume spiked 17× its historical average, and the market’s odds have moved sharply recently.

$56,788 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial cross-market trader, net No

A heavily active, historically profitable cross-market trader has returned to this event, though its overall win rate does not clearly beat its average entry odds and the current trades partially offset.

  • This trader is up $232,466 across more than 13,000 resolved positions and has traded 275 events.
  • The wallet has positioned across three markets in this event, with the current trades leaving a net No position here.
  • The 67% win rate is below the wallet’s 75¢ average win price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.

$2,366 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial cross-market trader, net No

A heavily active, historically profitable cross-market trader has returned to this event, though its overall win rate does not clearly beat its average entry odds and the current trades partially offset.

  • This trader is up $232,466 across more than 13,000 resolved positions and has traded 275 events.
  • The wallet has positioned across three markets in this event, with the current trades leaving a net No position here.
  • The 67% win rate is below the wallet’s 75¢ average win price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.

$3,848 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial cross-market trader, net No

A heavily active, historically profitable cross-market trader has returned to this event, though its overall win rate does not clearly beat its average entry odds and the current trades partially offset.

  • This trader is up $232,466 across more than 13,000 resolved positions and has traded 275 events.
  • The wallet has positioned across three markets in this event, with the current trades leaving a net No position here.
  • The 67% win rate is below the wallet’s 75¢ average win price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.

$3,847 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Five-wallet No cluster with proven bettors

Five wallets bought No together, including two with strong profitable track records, though some No trades may hedge existing large Yes positions.

  • Five wallets bought No within seconds, putting $7,178 behind the same outcome.
  • Two participants have strong records: one wins 75% across 9,506 bets and another wins 84% across 1,614.
  • Some wallets already hold large Yes positions, so their No buys may partly be hedges rather than pure conviction.

$14,862 on No

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader is again buying No, though the entry matches current odds and their win rate does not clearly beat their average entry prices.

  • This bettor has resolved 13,112 positions and is up about $226,000 overall.
  • They have positions across three markets tied to this event, with $36,303 in total activity.
  • The $1,400 No buy at 79¢ goes against the market’s recent Yes price rise, but matches the current No odds.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial cross-market trader, net No

A heavily active, historically profitable cross-market trader has returned to this event, though its overall win rate does not clearly beat its average entry odds and the current trades partially offset.

  • This trader is up $232,466 across more than 13,000 resolved positions and has traded 275 events.
  • The wallet has positioned across three markets in this event, with the current trades leaving a net No position here.
  • The 67% win rate is below the wallet’s 75¢ average win price, so its record alone does not establish an edge.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $5,374,721
  2. 0xe899...9cc0 — Yes, $360,057
  3. 0xfe49...7a4c — Yes, $241,750 (50% win rate)
  4. 0xf1e7...3fbf — Yes, $233,744
  5. 0x90c7...2934 — Yes, $176,096 (100% win rate)
  6. 0xcb01...7dfb — Yes, $129,348
  7. 0x020b...d13c — Yes, $127,041
  8. 0x96f4...edc5 — Yes, $104,148 (40% win rate)
  9. 0xdf14...6b86 — Yes, $88,357 (100% win rate)
  10. 0x547f...8980 — Yes, $82,703

Related Theses

Israel picks a different prime minister

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Flávio beats Lula in 2026

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Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or

Covers 3 related markets

Yashar will win most seats

Covers 2 related markets

Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula wins

Covers 2 related markets

Argentina won't win World Cup

Covers 7 related markets

United Russia will win election

Covers 2 related markets

Bitcoin will reach $110K, avoid dips

Covers 13 related markets

Eurovision winner among five countries

Covers 5 related markets

AfD wins between 42% and 45%

Covers 3 related markets

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026$281,473 tracked19 signalsSoccerSportsAwards
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Notable Trades

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 21:32 UTC

$48,351 on No at 75¢

75¢→100¢↑25¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 21:22 UTC

$40,737 on No at 75¢

75¢→100¢↑25¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 21:18 UTC

$89,159 on No at 75¢

75¢→100¢↑25¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 21:06 UTC

$56,788 on No at 75¢

75¢→100¢↑25¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 19:40 UTC

$2,366 on No at 78¢

78¢→100¢↑22¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 19:33 UTC

$3,848 on No at 78¢

78¢→100¢↑22¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 16:59 UTC

$3,847 on No at 78¢

78¢→100¢↑22¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 15:18 UTC

$14,862 on No at 70¢

70¢→100¢↑30¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 13:13 UTC

$1,500 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 13:00 UTC

$3,000 on No at 78¢

78¢→100¢↑22¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 13:13 UTC

$1,678 on No at 75¢

75¢→100¢↑25¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 12:57 UTC

$1,500 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 12:38 UTC

$1,256 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 11:53 UTC

$3,612 on No at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 11:34 UTC

$1,560 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 10:09 UTC

$2,669 on No at 78¢

78¢→100¢↑22¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 00:57 UTC

$1,674 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-26 00:29 UTC

$1,666 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

2026-10-24 21:10 UTC

$1,400 on No at 79¢

79¢→100¢↑21¢

Related Theses

Israel picks a different prime minister
Wallet_0x122cb trades 3 related markets
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the…Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next…Will Naftali Bennett be the ne…
Flávio beats Lula in 2026
Wallet_0x122cb trades 2 related markets
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the …Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva…
Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or
Wallet_0x65757 trades 3 related markets
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 B…Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026…Will Kylian Mbappé win the 202…
Yashar will win most seats
Wallet_0x65757 trades 2 related markets
Will Likud win the most seats …Will Yashar win the most seats…
Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula wins
Wallet_0x65757 trades 2 related markets
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the …Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva…
Argentina won't win World Cup
Wallet_0x6db98 trades 7 related markets
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA W…Will France win the 2026 FIFA …Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA …
United Russia will win election
Wallet_0x65757 trades 2 related markets
Will United Russia (ER) gain t…Will New People (NL) gain the …
Bitcoin will reach $110K, avoid dips
Wallet_0x6db98 trades 13 related markets
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by…Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by…Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by…
Eurovision winner among five countries
Wallet_0x6db98 trades 5 related markets
Will Finland win Eurovision 20…Will Australia win Eurovision …Will Denmark win Eurovision 20…
AfD wins between 42% and 45%
Wallet_0x6db98 trades 3 related markets
Will AfD win less than 39% of …Will AfD win between 39% and 4…Will AfD win at least 45% of a…