Part of: What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,426.

Categories: Jerome Powell, Macro Indicators, Economy, Politics, Economic Policy, Fed, Fed Rates

Notable Trades

Thin-market macro buyer

A modest but dominant buy-equivalent Yes bet hit a very thin, wide-spread Fed rates market and aligns with strong recent Yes momentum, despite the wallet lacking a strong track record.

This was effectively a Yes buy at 16¢, well below the current 22¢ market price.
The trade was about 28x recent 24h volume in a very thin market with a 33¢ spread.
Yes has already moved up about 17 points over the past day, so this bet follows strong momentum.

$1,426 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 56%